J.C.R. Licklider’s article, “Man-Computer Symbiosis,” was the openi...
Joseph Carl Robnett Licklider (March 1915 – June 1990), was an Amer...
We are close to achieving the complete man-computer symbiosis that ...
Licklider's paper not only presents a remarkably prescient predicti...
Licklider's predictions are a bit ambitious in terms of their time ...
Many believe that the years of man-computer symbiosis will be the m...
Licklider didn't know it then, but this unofficial experiment prepa...
IRE
TRANSACTIONS
ON
HUMiAN
FACTORS
IN
ELECTRONICMr;h
Man-Computer
Symbiosis*
J.
C.
R.
LICKLIDERt
Summary-Man-computer
symbiosis
is
an
expected
develop-
ment
in
cooperative
interaction
between
men
and
electronic
computers.
It
will
involve
very
close
coupling
between
the
human
and
the
electronic
members
of
the
partnership.
The
main
aims
are
1)
to
let
computers
facilitate
formulative
thinking
as
they
now
facilitate
the
solution
of
formulated
problems,
and
2)
to
enable
men
and
computers
to
cooperate
in
making
decisions
and
controlling
complex
situations
without
inflexible
dependence
on
predetermined
programs.
In
the
anticipated
symbiotic
part-
nership,
men
will
set
the
goals,
formulate
the
hypotheses,
deter-
mine
the
criteria,
and
perform
the
evaluations.
Computing
machines
will
do
the
routinizable
work
that
must
be
done
to
prepare
the
way
for
insights
and
decisions
in
technical
and
scientific
thinking.
Preliminary
analyses
indicate
that
the
sym-
biotic
partnership
will
perform
intellectual
operations
much
more
effectively
than
man
alone
can
perform
them.
Prerequisites
for the
achievement
of
the
effective,
cooperative
association
include
developments
in
computer
time
sharing,
in
memory
components,
in
memory
organization,
in
programming
lan-
guages,
and
in
input
and
output
equipment.
1.
INTRODUCTION
A.
.ipibiosis
r
v
HE
fig
tree
is
pollinated
only
by
the
insect
Bla.sto-
/li(aJa
gr'ossor'ItnR2.
Tile
larva
of
time
insect
lives
in
the
ovary
of
the
fig
tr
ee,
and
tlhere
it
gets
its
food.
The
tree
andl
time
insect,
ar
e
thus
heavily
inter-
dle)epndent:
the
tree
cannot.
relrodluce
xvitlhout
the
insect;
the
insect
cannot
eat
wsitlhout
the
tree;
together,
tlheyr
consitutte
not
only
a
vialile
but
a
productive
and
thriving
p)artnershilp.
This
cooperative
"living
togethler
in
inti-
mnate
association,
or
even
close
uinioni,
of
txvo
dissimiiilar
organismnis"
is
called
symliiosis.1
Man-computer
symbiosis
is
a
stibelass
of
man-
imaeline
systemns."
There
ar
e
many
milani-
machl-inie
sys-
temiis.
At
present,
hoxvever,
there
are
no
mnan-comliuter
svimbioses.
The
piurposes
of
this
paper
are
to
present
the
concept
and,
hopefully,
to
foster
the
development
of
man-computer
symbiosis
a-Ilalyzin;g
some
probilem's
of
interaction
between
miien
an(I
computing
machines.,
calling
attention
to
ap)plicable
prineililes
of
miian-machline
eniginiecring,
anci
l)ointing
otit
a
fex-
quiestions
to
which
resetarch
ansxvers
are
needledl.
The
hoiie
is
tlhat,
in
not
too
many
years,
humiiiian
blrain.s
and
computing
imiachiines
MaNinuscrlipt
receivedl
by
the
PGHFEk
Jmnuary
13.
1960;
re-
vise(l
manuscript
received,
Januiary
18.
1960.
The
backgrouind
worik
on
which
this
paper
is
basdcl
wv'as
suipported
largely
by
the
Behavioral
Sciences
Di-isioni,
Air
Force
Office
of
Scientific
Re-
searcl,
'Air
Research
and
Development
Command,
thiotigh
Con-
tract
No.
AF-49(638)-355.
t
Bolt
Ber-anek
and
Newiman
Inc.,
Caml1br
idge,
ailss.
1
"Welister's
New
International
Dietionary,"
2n(l
e(i.,
G.
andl
C.
Mlerriam
Co.,
Springfield,
Mass.,
p.
2555;
1958.
'iIi
lie
coupled
together
very
tiglhtly,
anid
tlclt.
the
ie-
suilting
partnershil)
xvill
tliink
as
ino
hluimian
brain
has
ever
tlhotiglit
and
process
data
in
a
way
not
approached
by
the
information-handling
machinies
w-e
kniow
todlay.
P).
Betwveen?
"'Mechanicalt
E.Lxted
11e(Ilan
and'
l
"'A
rtificial
In
telliyen
ce'
As
a
concelpt,
mnaii-computer
syml)iosis
is
diflerent
inI
an
important
way
frioimi
whaIt
North2
has
called
"ie-
chanicallyv
extendeci
imian."
In
the
miiain-mlaelline
sNsteims
of
the
l)ast,
the
lhtumiian
operator
suI)l)lie(l
the
initiative,
the
(dlirection,
the
integration,
an1
the
criterion.
Th1e
imiechlaIiceal
l)arts
of
thie
syst'ems
wvere
mnere
extellnsions.
fir;st.
of
the
lhumiiani
armii.
tlhen
of
the
hluiima-n
eye.
These
sy.stems
certalinly
did
Inot
con,sist.
of
"dissimilar
organ-
isms
livinog
together
.
There
wa-as
onfly,
one
kiindl
of
organlism-man
1la
ndl
.
the
r
est
was
there
onlyv
to
help
In
onie
sense
of
cotur.se,
any
mlaii-iiia(le
system
is
ill-
tended
to
lhell)
mlan,
to
hielp)
a
imaan
or
iien
outsidle
the
svstemi.
If
wN-e
focus
upon
the
htumi-ani
operator
(s)
w\ithIinl
the
system,
however,
w
-e
see
that,
in
some
areas
of
tech-i-
nology,
a
fanitastic
clhainge
lias
taken
l)lace
clur
ing,
the
last,
few
y
7ears.
"Mlechanical
extension"
hias
given
way
to
replacement
of
miien,
to
automatio,
an(l
the
miieni
wh-llo
remain
are
tlher
e
more
to
liel)
tlhani
to
be
helped.
In
sonce
instances,
particularly
in
large
comp)uter-centeredl
in
formiiiatioIn
andi
contirol
systems.
thle
hiumiian
operators
arle
resl)onsiile
mainly
for
functions
thiat
it
mroved
ini-
feasibile
to
automiiate.
Such
11svstenis
('humanlv
extenidedl
mnachines',
Noirtlh
iimiglht
call
them)
arc
nIot
symii'iotiC
systems.
Tlhe
are
"semi-aut,omatic'
systems,
systems
th1at!
stcarted
otit,
to
he
fully
atutoiimatic
hut,
fe
sllor
t
of
thle
gotal.
MI\an-computer
symbiosis
is
prol)al)ly
not
the
ultimIate
par.adigmin
for
complex
technological
systems.
It,
seeins
entit-ely
)ossible
tlat,
in
dlue
course,
electronic
oi'
chem-
ic;al
"'miacllines'
vill
outdo
thle
lhunmai
brain
in
m-iost
of
thlle
fullntions
we
now
consi(der
exclusivelv
wN-ithlini
its>
province.
Even
now,
(eclernter's
IBAI-704
pr'ogramil
forl
pr'oving
theorems
In
plane
geometry
lp)roceedls
at
talout
tihe
same
pace
as
Brooklyn
hiiglh
selool
students,
awld
makes
silmilar
errors.3
There
are,
in
fact,
several
thieoiell-e-
2J.
D.
Northi,
'The
rational
behlavior
of
mechanically
extended
man,"
Boulton
Paul
Aircraft
Ltd..
Wolverhampton.
Eng.;
Sep-
tenmber,
1954.
2
H.
Gelernter,
"Realization
of
a.
G(eomnetnr
Theorem
Pro-ing
Machine."
ITnesco,
NS,
ICIP,
1.6.6,
Internatl.
Conf.
on
Informna-
tioil
Proves-s.ing,
Paris.i,
France:
Jine.
1959.
4
lHarch.
Authorized licensed use limited to: Cornell University. Downloaded on September 6, 2009 at 23:16 from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply.
Licklider:
Man-Computer
Symbiosis
proving,
problem-solving,
chess-playing,
and
pattern-
recognizing
programs
(too
iiany
for
complete
refer-
ence4-15)
capable
of
riv
aling
humiian
intellectual
perform-
ance
in
restricted
areas;
and
Newell,
Simon,
and
Shaw'sl6
'general
prolblem
solver"
may
r
emove
some
of
the
re-
strictions.
In
slhort,
it
seems
worthwhile
to
avoid
argu-
ment
Nitlh
(other)
entlhusiasts
for
artificial
intelligence
by
conceding
dcominance
in
the
distant
future
of
cere-
bration
to
miiachlines
alone.
There
ill
nevertheless
be
a
faiirly
long
interimii
during
wlhiel
the
miiain
intellectual
advances
will
be
miiade
by
miien
anl
comlputers
working
togetlher
in
intimiiat*e
association.
A
miiultidisciplinary
st.udy
groul),
examiiining
future
research
and
develop-
ment
problems
of
the
Air
Force,
estimated
that
it
would
be
1980
before
dev-elopmiients
in
artificial
intelligence
miiake
it
)ossible
for
miiachines
alone
to
do
much
thinking
or
problem
solving
of
military
significance.
That
would
leave,
say,
fiv-e
years
to
develop
man-computer
symbiosis
and
1.5
years
to
use
it.
The
15
miiay
be
10
or
500,
but
those
years
slhould
be
intellectually
the
most
creative
and
ex-
citing
in
the
hiistory
of
mankind.
II.
AIMiS
OF
i\IAN-COMPUTER
SYMBIOSIS
Present-day
computers
are
designed
primarily
to
solve
preformulated
problems
or
to
process
data
accord-
ing
to
predeterminedl
procedures.
The
course
of
the
com-
putation
may
be
conditional
upon
results
obtained
dur-
ing
the
computation,
but
all
the
alternatives
must
be
foreseen
in
advance.
(If
an
unforeseen
alternative
arises,
4.A.
Newell
and
J.
C.
Shaw,
"Programming
the
logic
theory
machine,"
Piroc.
WJCC,
pp.
230-240;
March,
1957.
5
P.
C.
Gilmore,
"A
Program
for
the
Production
of
Proofs
for
Theorems
Derivable
Within
the
First
Order
Predicate
Calcultus
from
Axioms,"
Unesco,
NS,
ICIP,
1.6.14,
Internatl.
Conf.
on
Information
Processing,
Paris,
France;
June,
1959.
6
B.
G.
Farley
and
W.
A.
Clark,
"Simtulation
of
self-organizing
systems
by
digital
computer
s,"
IRE
TRANS.
ON
INFORMATION
THEORY,
vol.
IT-4,
pp.
76-84;
September,
1954.
7R.
M.
Friedberg,
"A
learning
machine:
Part
I,"
IBM
J.
Res.
&
Dev.,
vol.
2,
pp.
2-13;
January,
1958.
O.
G.
Selfridge,
"Pandemonium,
a
paradigm
for
learming,"
Proc.
Symp.
Mechanisation
of
Tho?ight
Processes,
Natl.
Physical
Lab.,
Teddington,
Eng.;
November,
1958.
9
W.
W.
Bledsoe
and
I.
Browning,
"Pattern
Recognition
and
Reading
by
Machine,"
presented
at
the
Eastern
Joint
Computer
Conf.,
Boston,
Mass.,
December,
1959.
10
C.
E.
Shannon,
"Programming
a
computer
for
playing
chess,"
Phil.
Mag.,
vol.
41,
pp.
256-75;
March,
1950.
11
A.
Newell,
"The
chess
machine:
an
example
of
dealing
with
a
complex
task
by
adaptation,"
Proc.
TVJCC,
pp.
101-108;
March,
1955.
12
A.
Bernstein
and
M.
deV.
Roberts,
"Computer
versus
chess-
player,"
Scientific
American,
vol.
198,
pp.
96-98;
June,
1958.
13
A.
Newell,
J.
C.
Shaw,
and
H.
A.
Simon,
"Chess-playing
programs
and
the
problem
of
complexity,"
IBM
J.
Res.
&
Dev.,
vol.
2,
pp.
320-335;
October,
1958.
14H.
Sherman,
"A
Quasi-Topological
Method
for
Recognition
of
Line
Patterns,"
Unesco,
NS,
ICIP,
H.L.5,
Internatl.
Conf.
on
Information
Processing,
Paris,
France;
June,
1959.
15
G.
P.
Dinneen,
"Programming
pattern
recognition,"
Proc.
WVJCC,
pp.
94-100;
March,
1955.
16
A.
Newell,
H.
A.
Simon,
and
J.
C.
Shaw,
"Report
on
a
gen-
eral
problem-solving
program,"
Unesco,
NS,
ICIP,
1.6.8,
Internatl.
Conf.
on
Information
Processing,
Paris,
France;
June,
1959.
the
whole
process
comes
to
a
halt
and
awaits
the
neces-
sary
extension
of
the
program.)
The
requirement
for
preformulation
or
predeterimination
is
sometimes
no
great
disadlvantage.
It
is
often
said
that
programming
for
a
computing
miiachine
forces
one
to
think
clearly,
that
it
disciplines
the
thouglht
process.
If
the
user
can
think
hiis
problem
througlh
in
adv
ance,
symbiotic
association
Nwitlh
a
computing
machine
is
not
necessary.
Howev-er,
many
problems
that
can
be
thlought
tlhrough
in
adv-ance
are
very
difficult
to
think
tlhrough
in
ad-
vance.
They
would
be
easier to
solve,
and
tlhey
could
be
solve(l
faster,
through
an
intuitively
guided
trial-and-
error
procedure
in
wNlhich
the
computer
cooperated,
turn-
ing
up
flaws
in
the
reasoning
or
revealing
unexpected
turns
in
the
solution.
Other
problems
simiiply
cannot
be
formulated
without
computing-machine
aid.
Poincare
anticipated
the
frustration
of
an
important
group
of
would-be
computer
users
wlhen
lhe
said,
"The
question
is
not,
'Wlhat
is
the
answer?'
The
question
is,
'What
is
the
question?''Y
One
of
the
main
aims
of
man-computer
symlbiosis
is
to
bring
the
computing
maclhine
effectively
into
the
formulative
parts
of
technical
problems.
The
other
main
aim
is
closely
related.
It
is
to
bring
comiputing
iimachines
effectively
into
processes
of
think-
ing
that
miiust
go
on
in
"real
time,"
time
that
moves
too
fast
to
permit
using
computers
in
conventional
ways.
Imagine
trying,
for
example,
to
direct
a
battle
with
the
aid
of
a
computer
on
such
a
schledule
as
this.
YoU
formulate
your
problemi
today.
Tomnorrow
you
spend
witlh
a
programmer.
Next
week
the
computer
devotes
5
minutes
to
assembling
your
program
and
47
seconds
to
calculating
the
answer
to
your
problem.
You
get
a
sheet
of
paper
20
feet
long,
full
of
numbers
that,
instead
of
providing
a
final
solution,
only
suggest
a
tactic
that
should
be
explored
by
simiiulation.
Obviously,
the
battle
would
be
over
before
the
second
step
in
its
planning
was
begun.
To
tlhink
in
interaction
with
a
computer
in
the
same
way
that
you
think
witlh
a
colleague
whose
com-
petence
supplements
your
own
will
require
much
tighter
coupling
between
mian
and
maclhine
than
is
suggested
by
the
example
and
than
is
possible
today.
III.
NEED
FOR
COMPUTER
PARTICIPATION
IN
FORMULATIVE
AND
REAL-TIME
THINKING
The
preceding
paragraphs
tacitly
made
the
assuml-p-
tion
that,
if
they
could
be
introduced
effectively
into
the
thought
process,
the
functions
that
can
be
performed
by
data-processing
machines
would
improve
or
facilitate
thinking
and
problem
solving
in
an
important
way.
That
assumption
may
require
justification.
A.
A
Prelimninary
and
Infornmal
Timne-and-MlIotion
Analysis
of
Technical
Thinking
Despite
the
fact
that
there
is
a
voluminous
literature
on
thinking
and
problem
solving,
including
intensive
5
1960
Authorized licensed use limited to: Cornell University. Downloaded on September 6, 2009 at 23:16 from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply.
IRE
TRANSACTIONS
ON
HUMilAN
FACTORS
IN
ELECTRONIC,'S
1lrh
case-hiistor-y
studies
of
the
process
of
ineto,
ol
findc
nothiing
comparab
le
to
a
t.ime-an(ndinotion-study
anail"Ysis
of
the
mienital
wNor-k
of
'a
person
engagedl
in
a
scientific
or-
techniical
enterl)rise.
In
the
sp)inMg
and
sumii-
mier,
of
1957,
therefore,
I
tried
to)
keep)
track
of
wh-lat
onle
mlo(ler-atelv
technical
person
actually
do
(lI(
dring
thec
hourns
hie
regardle(d
as
dlevotedl
to
work.
Althouigh
I
wvas.
aware
of
the
inadcc{uiacv
of
thle
s~ainpling,
I
servedl
as
1iiv
ownN1
suihrect.
It,
510011
became
applarlclit
that
the
maIc-in
thinlg
I
did
was--
to
keel)
records,
and-
th
p
rojcect
wvouldh
hiave
become
anti
inifinite
regress
if
the
keeplingo
of
records
hiad
been
carried
t
lir-ough-
in
the
detail
(nvisae(ld
In
th-e
initiRal.
plan.
It,
wa's
nlot.
'Neverthlele"ss
I
obta-inled
a
p)icture
of
ny
activities
thiat.
gave
mie
pauise.
Perhaps
mly
spect
i'um1
is
niot.
typical-I
hope
it
is
niot,
b..ut
I
fear-
it,
is.
About,
85
per
cenit
of
my
'thin-king'
time
was
spen-t,
0'oettHio-
itito
a
p)osition
to
thintk,
to
matke
a
decision,
to
l
earni
somet-hing
I
nieedled
to
kniowN.
Mutch
more
timeA
wnNCit.
inlto
find(inlg
or-
obtainling
in1forma1,-tion
than1
inIto
(dioestingr
it.
Hours-,
wNent
inito
the
pilottli-no
of
graph-s,
a-nd
otlier
lioirs
inito
ins,1tructingIf
an11
assistan-t
how
to
p)lot.
Wh71en
the
grzaphis
were
finsishd,
tie
relations.~
were
oh)viouis
at
onice,
but.
the
plottinop
had-
to
he
(lone
in
ordler
to
mi-ake
thiem
so.
At
onie
l)oint.,
it,
wvas-
neicessary
to
compare
s,ix
exlperimnental
(leterminatiomlis
of
a
funcitioni
relatin-
speech-intelligibility
to
speeclh-to0-noise~
rattio.
N
o
tw
N'o
expierimnenters
lia'id
usedi
the
same
(leffinltion
or
eaur
of
speech-to-nioise
ratio.
Several
houirs
of
c-alculatingY
were
requtired
to
get,
the
dhata
inito
conmparab)le
formii.
When
they
wNere
InI
comparable
formii,
it
took
only1
a-
few
second(s
to
cletermiine
wvha
t
I
nieed(le
to
kniow.
Throughout,
the
period
I
cxaimineol,
in
zshort,
my
i'thiniking''
tlime
was
(devote(l
main-ly
to
activities
that
wvere
essenitially
clerical
or-
imcchanlical:
seuachingo
cal-
cuilatling,
plottinig,
transfornming,
(leternini-ng
thie
logical
or-
olvnaniici
conseq~uences
of
a
set
of
assuimptioils
01
liy-
lpot-heses,
preparing
the
waly
for-
a
(decision
01,
ain
ii-isiht.
Moreover,
myv
choices
of
what
to
.attempt
and
xIi
wht,
not,
t)
a
-ttempt
wvere
dleterni'ine(
to
an
eiiubarma-inohioml
reat
extent
by
considlerations
of
clrclfea-sibilitv,
not
in1-
tellectutal.
calpability.
The
mtalin
suggestioii
comiveycol
by
the
finings
lust,
described
is
that
the
operations
that
fill
mos,-t
of
thie
tlime
allegedlyv(devotedl
to
technical
thinikinig
ar-e
opera-
tioins
thiat,
ca-n
be
lperformed
miorec
effectively
by
ma-
chines
thlan
by
mieni.
'Severe
lprobilems
are
posed
by
tIme
f(act.
thalit
these
olperat
ions
have
to
be
performedl
upon
oliVerlse
variables
andii(i
unfor,eseen
amI-i
continiually
chianginig
sequtencees.
If
thlose
problems-
cani
be
solved
in
sucha
wy
asto
reae
a
symbiotic
relat-ion
betw-eena
matn
anid
a
fast,
information--retrieval
and
(ldata-process-
inig
imacchinie,
however,
it,
seems
eviden-t,
thtat
thle
coopera-
tive
initer-actioni
would
greatly
improve
tIme
thiniking-
I
)1O((55
B.
Comnparatice
Capabilitiles
of
ilIeko
and
Computers
It
miay
be
applrol)riate
to
acknowledge,
aIt.
t
his
powint.
that
wve
ar-e
using
the
termi-
'computer'
to
cover
a
wvid.e
clcass~
of
ecalculating,
dat
a-processing,
and
iiiforum
"t
ioi.m-
storge-nd-rtrivalmaclines.
The
Capabilities-
of
mia-
chiines~
in
this
class
arc
increcasing-
almost
tla-ilIv.
It
is
therefore
hazardlous
to
niake
gener.al.
statemenmts,
about
calal)lites
f
te
cass
1~rhaps
it.
is,
equally
hiazardous;
to
ma-tke
general
statements
about,
tihe
cap)abilities~
ot
mieni.
Neverthieless.
certalin
geniotypic
differenices
InI
cLap-
ability
between
mieni
awll
compliuters
do
standII
ou.t.
andt
they
have
a
b.earingr
oni
the
niat.ure
of
possibleman
comnputer
symbiosis
and
the
p
otentialI
valuec
of'
achlievino,
it.
As
has
been
sai(.l
in
various
ways.
mieii
are.
noisv,
niar-
row-b-and
(devices,
but
theirl
nier"Vous
svstenis
haveN
VeryV
Imiani
parallel
and
simultaneouslyI
active
chuannlsc.
14lela-
tive
to
macai,
computing
macWhlimes
are
very
l'ast
anid
veryv
accurate,
I
ut
th1ey
are
cons,trainedI
to
performn
oiily
one
or
a
fewN
element
arv
operatoions~
at.
a.
time.
'Menl
are1
flexi-
h
mc.
calpable
Of
"programm.1ingII-o
themse"lves
cit
ingetlv"
on
t
le
basi~s
of
newly
received
in
formation.
Compuitinog
macills
Zfesingole-minidled,
cntrained
byv
thell
progamamimig.
'
Je
naturally
s,pecak
redi
ln.lami-
guagces
orglaniztd
aroundI
unitary
obj
ects
amnd
colicremit
acions,
aim(
emlyn
0t
0
elementaryv
symbols.
Coniputers
niaturially'
spicak
nonredlundant.
Ianouages.
usuialk
lv
wit
Ii
onily
twNo
elementary
symb
ols
land
nio
inher-
(nt
appr)1eciation
eithier
of
uni,1ta-ry
obi
ects
or-
of
cohereint
act
iomns.
TIo
hw
r'iooromislv
correct.
those
chiamacterizat
ions
wvould
huave
to
iincludce
imany
qualifiers.
-Nevertheless,
tIme
piU.-
ture
of
dhissimilairity
andc
tlimerefom-e
pot-ential
sup)plemaen-
t-ation
that
they
present
is
essentially
val1id(.
Comnputimig
miachinies
can
(10
reatdily,
well,
and
r.apidly
nianv
thminos.,
thiat
are
tJifficult
om'
impossible
for
miani,
and
incan
can
do
readiil
and
well,
thiough-
niot.
rapidly,
many
tIingst'
that
ar-c
(lifficuilt
or-
imp)ossiblhe
for,
comphuters.
Tha-t
suggests-
thmait
a
symbiotic
coopierat
ion,
if
successful
ini
inteogratinog
thle
positive
charcacteristics
of
miieii
anml
compluters,
would
be
of
gr-eat.
value.
Time
dJifferences
in
spieed
andl
In
.lanl-
guage,"C
of
cours11e,
pose
difficulties,
that
muust.
be
ov-ercomle.
I
V.
S~-'EPARABLE
FuN-1,CrIioNs,
OF
MEIN
AND
COMPU-TERS
IN
THEF
A-NTICIPATED
SYMBIOTIC
Ass-OCIATmON
.It
seemls
likely
that
tlIme
contrilbutions
of
humiiani
op-
emlators
aia(l
equipmenit.
will1
blend
together
so
comuphetehy
in
nmanv
operations,
that,
it
will
be
(lifficuilt.
to
sep.arate
thieii
n'eatly
Imn
analysis.
Thlat
womild
be
tHie
case
if,
InI
gathering
(lata
oiWhuich
bo
ase
adecision,
for
exape
both
tIme
mian
and
tIme
eonihut.er
canine
upl
with
relevant
lprece(lents
fr-omi
experience
and
if
thie
comlputer
thieni
suggestedl
Ca
couirse
of
actioni
that,
agreed
withi
time
inians"
initutiv
e
udN't(gimnent.
(In
theorem-proving
programis,
cojin-
puters
find
p)recedents
in
e'xperience,
andl
in
thec
SAGE
March
Authorized licensed use limited to: Cornell University. Downloaded on September 6, 2009 at 23:16 from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply.
Licilider:
lMan-Computer
Symbiosis
System,
thev
suggest
courses
of
action.
The
foregoing
is
Inot
a
far-fetchied
examiple.)
In
otlher
operations,
however,
thie
contributions
of
miien
and
equipment
Nill
be
to
some
extent
separable.
Men
Nwill
set
the
goals
and
supply
the
motivations,
of
coturse,
at
least
in
the
early
years.
They
wrill
forml-ulate
ylN)otheses.
Thley
will
ask
quiestions.
They
wrill
think
of
mechanisms,
procedures,
and
models.
They
will
iemem-
bet
thiat
stuchl-anid-suclh
a
person
didl
soiime
possibly
rele-
vant
work
on
a
topic
of
interest
back
in
1947,
or
at
any
rate
shortly
after
World
W1'ar
II,
and
they
Nill
have
an
icdea
in
what
joturnals
it
mliglht
have
been
publislhed.
In
genieral,
they
Nill
make
approximate
and
fallible,
but
leading,
contributions,
and
they
wrill
define
criteria
and
serve
as
evaluators,
judging
the
contributions
of
the
equipment
and
guiding
the
general
line
of
tlhouglht.
In
addition,
men
will
lhandle
the
very-low-probability
situations
wlhen
such
situations
do
actually
arise.
(In
current
man-machine
systemiis,
that
is
one
of
the
human
operator's
most
iinportant
functions.
The
sum
of
the
probabilities
of
very-low-probability
alternatives
is
often
imiuclh
too
large
to
ineglect.)
Men
will
fill
in
the
gaps,
ei-
tiher
in
the
problem
solution
or
in
the
computer
program,
when
the
computer
lhas
no
mode
or
routine
that
is
ap-
plicable
in
a
particular
circumstance.
The
information-processing
equipment,
for
its
part,
will
convert
hypotlheses
into
testable
models
and
then
test
the
models
against
data
(which
the
lhutman
operator
miiay
designate
roughly
and
identify
as
relevant
when
the
computer
presents
them
for
hiis
approval).
The
equipment
will
answer
questions.
It
will
simulate
the
miechanisms
and
models,
carry
out
the
procedures,
and
display
the
results
to
the
operator.
It
w
ill
transform
data,
plot
graphs
("cutting
the
cake"
in
whatever
way
the
lhuman
operator
specifies,
or
in
several
alternative
ways
if
the
human
operator
is
not
sure
what
he
wants).
The
equipment
will
interpolate,
extrapolate,
and
trans-
forimi.
It
will
convert
static
equations
or
logical
state-
imients
into
dynamic
models
so
the
lhuman
operator
can
examine
their
behavior.
In
general,
it
will
carry
out
the
routinizable,
clerical
operations
that
fill
the
intervals
between
decisions.
In
addition,
the
comlputer
will
serve
as
a
statistical-
inference,
decision-tlheory,
or
gamue-theory
machine
to
miiake
elementary
evaluations
of
suggested
courses
of
ac-
tioIn
wlhenever
there
is
enouigh
basis
to
support
a
formal
statistical
analysis.
Finally,
it
will
do
as
muclh
diagnosis,
pattern
matching,
and
relevrance
recognizing
as
it
profit-
ablv
can,
but
it
will
accept
a
clearly
secondary
status
in
those
areas.
y!.
PREREQUISITES
FOR
REALIZATION
OF
AMAN-COMPUTER
SYAIBIOSIS
The
data-processing
equipm-nent
tacitlr
postulated
in
the
preceding
section
is
not
available.
The
colnputer
pro-
gramns
lhavre
not
been
wsritten.
Tlhere
are
in
fact
several
lhurdles
that
stand
betwteen
the
nonsymbiotic
present
and
the
anticipated
symiibiotic
future.
Let
tus
examine
somiie
of
tlheimi
to
see
more
clearly
wh-liat
is
needled
andl
wlhat
the
clhances
are
of
achieving
it.
A.
Speed
llistinatch
Between
lien
and
Com)ipiters
Any
present-day
large-scale
comlputer
is
too
fast
anid
too
costly
for
real-timiie
cooperative
tlinkiing
witlh
one
mian.
Clearly,
for
the
sake
of
efficiency
andl
economiy,
the
computer
miiust
divide
its
time
amiioing
miiany
users.
Timie-slharing
systemiis
are
cuirrently
under
active
devel-
ol)ment.
Tlhere
are
even
arrangements
to
keep
users
from
"clobbering"
anythiing
but
their
own
personal
programs.
It
seemiis
reasonable
to
enivision,
for
a
time
10
or
15
yeairs
lhencee,
'tlhinking
center"
that
will
incor)orate
the
functions
of
present-day
libraries
together
with
antici-
pated
advances
in
inforimation
storage
and
retrieval
and
the
symbiotic
functions
suggested
earlier
in
this
paper.
The
picture
readily
enlarges
itself
into
a
network
of
sucl
centers,
connected
to
one
anothier
bv
wide-band
coIml-
munication
lines
and
to
individual
users
by
leased-wire
servrices.
In
suchi
a
systemii,
the
speedi
of
the
computers
would
be
balanced,
and
the
cost
of
the
gigantic
memiories
and
the
sophisticated
programs
would
be
divided
by
the
nulmlber
of
users.
B.
Alemoary
Har}dtare
Requiremnents
Wlhen
we
start
to
think
of
storing
any
appreciable
fraction
of
a
technical
literature
in
computer
memory,
we
run
into
billions
of
bits
and,
unless
things
change
narkedly,
billions
of
dollars.
The
first
tlhing
to
face
is
that
we
shall
not
store
all
the
techlnical
and
scientific
papers
in
computer
memory.
We
nay
store
the
parts
that
can
be
summarized
most
suc-
cinctly-the
quantitative
parts
and
the
reference
cita-
tions-but
not
the
whole.
Books
are
among
the
most
beautifully
engineered,
and
human-engineered,
com-
ponents
in
existence,
and
they
will
continue
to
be
func-
tionally
important
within
the
context
of
man-computer
symbiosis.
(Hopefully,
the
computer
will
expedite
the
finding,
delivering,
and
returning
of
books.)
The
second
point
is
that
a
very
important
section
of
miiemory
will
be
periimanent:
part
indelible
mzemiiory
and
part
published
nmemiory.
The
computer
will
be
able
to
write
once
into
indelible
miemory,
and
then
read
back
indefinitely,
but
the
computer
will
not
be
able
to
erase
indelible
memory.
(It
may
also
over-write,
turning
all
the
O's
into
l's,
as
though
marking
ovrer
what
was
written
earlier.)
Published
memory
will
be
"read-only"
memory.
It
Nill
be
introdutcedl
into
the
coimiptuter
already
struc-
tured.
The
coml1puter
wN
ill
be
able
to
r-efer
to
it
repeatedly,
btut
not
to
change
it.
These
types
of
miiemory
will
be-
comiie
mioime
and
miiore
imiiportant
as
comiiputers
grow
larger.
They
can
be
made
miore
complact
than
core,
tlhin-film,
or
1960
7I
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8
~~~IRE
TRANSACTION'S
ON
HL
'MAN
FACTORS
IN
ELECTRONI(CS
ii((i
ev~en
tap)e
memory,
and(
thiev
wxill
bie
miuchi
less
expen-
sive.
Tue
main
eginieeringo
problems
-will
concerni
selec-
tion
eircultrv.
In
s,;o
fain
a'.
othtic
1sl)ects
of
memory
r'equirm'nent,
are
concerniedl,
XXv(
iVIav
(outiit
upo0n
the
coniiitnino'(
(levelop-
incnt.
of
or'dinau'y
'cientific
and(
hulsinlesS
computing
mai--
chines.
There
is
oine
prospewct
thal-t
miemiorv
elemients
NvI'II
l)ecome
as
fast
as
process~ino'
ilooic)
elements.
Tha-tt
lJevclopiment
wouldl
have
a
revolutiona-ry
effect.
upo
in
the
olesign
of
comnputers.
C
.
ifl[mo'y
Oya'q-abo&itw
Reqiuiremileuid.
Implicit
in
the
idlea
of
inan-cominpteci
symbiosis
are
thie
requirements
that
information
be
iet
rievable
both
by
name
and
by
pattern
antI
thiat.
it.
he
accessible
thlrough,
procedlure
imuch
faster-
thian
serial
searchl.
At
least,
hliaf
of
t-Ime
prob1lem
of
memnory
or-ganiizationi
appears
to
resi(le
in
the.s
tor-age
procedlure.
'Most
of
the
remainder
seemsl
to
be
xvi'rapped
upl
in
the
problemi
of
pattern
recognition
with
finte
storage
miechianismi
or-
miediumi.
DetailedI
dis-
cus.sion
of
thiese
problems
'Is
beyondI
the
present
s.cope(.
However,
a
l)rief
outtline
of
onec-
promising
Idea..
"trie
memory,"
may
servie
to
indicate
the
greneral.
na-iture
of
anticpted
(levelopments,.
Tiie
memory011
is
so
calledI
by
it-s
or-iginiator,
Fredkin.17
bec-ause
it
is
tlesigne(I
to
facilitate
retr-ieval
of
informa-
t.ion
and
lbecause
thie
b)ranching
storage
strutuetre,
when
developed,
resembles,-
a
tr-ee.
Most
commiion-
mlen-ior-vs'-
tentis
store
functions
of
arguments,
at
locations
designated
i)y
time
arguments.
(TIn
one
sense,
thiey
(10
not
store
tlhe
agument,s
at.
aill.
TIn
another
and
m-iore
reali~sticsne
they
stoice
all
the
possible
argruments,
in
the
framework
Structure
of
tIme
memory.)
The
tr-ie
memory
system,
oni
the
othler-
hand,
stores
both
tIme
funcitionis
anid
the
airgti-
mnents,
TIme
argument
is
introduced
into
thie
memory
first4..
one
character
at
a
tlime,
starting
at,
a
standatrd
iniitial-
reg-ist.er.
Eachi
argument
register
im
s
one
cell
for-
eachi
character
of
the
ensemblle
(e.q.,
two
for-
iniformiation
eni-
coded
in
binary
formii)
and(
aeah
charaicter
cell
hias
wNithini
it.
storage
space
for.
thie
aiddress
of
the
next.
reg'ister.
Thel
ai-rgumient
is
storedl
by
wr-1itling
a
series,
of
addresses-,
each
onie
of
which
t,ells'
wh-lere
to
find(
thie
next.
At,
th-e
endI
of
thec
ar-gumiient
is
a
special
'end(-of-arguimient"
marker.
Thien
follow,
dIirectionis
to
the
funcition,
wichiil
is
stored
in
one
or
anotheri
of
s-,everal
ways,,
either'
further
tr'ic
structure
or-
"list,
structiture"
often
l)cing,
miost.
effective.
Thie
trie
memory
scheme
is
inefficient
foi'
smIall
miemt-
ories,
but,
it.
becomes,
increasingly
efficient,
in
using
avail-
able
storage
space
as
miemiory
size
Increases.
Tile
attr-ac-
tive
feat.ures
of
the
scemiiie
are
thiese:
1)
The
retrieval
process
is
ext,remely
simple.
Given
t
le
argument.
cuite
r
thie
stanidard
initia1
register
wAithl
the
first
character.,
and
lpick
upj
thle
addIress
of
thie
second.
Thien
go
to
thle
seconid
register,
an(l
pick
up
the
add(ress
of
the
thiird,
etc.
2.)
If
1
'-
Fr'edkimn,
T
m'ie.
m
oem
no
my%,'
twNo
arguments~
have
I
n
It
Ialt
c
harancters
InI
eon11(IIno,
fley
uise
t.he
samie.
storage
spa,fce
for-
those
characters.
3)
T1he
lengthis
of
the
arguments
ncedi
ot
be
tIme
'saint1,
and
neced
niot
be.
specified
in.
advance.
4
N'o
r-oomini
IIstorage
is
rese,~rve(l
for,
or'
used.
by
any
aroounintit
tliitil
it
is
actunallv
stored.
The
triei
structure
is
crea,ted
as
theo
items
aic,
in-
t-roduced
inito
the
inemory.
5)
A
function
czan
he
used
as
an
alrgfumlent,
for-
anlother
function,
'and
tImatt
lunct
iou
aI5
an
rguent
for,
the
next.
-Thus,
for,
cxaimph
vetr
ing.
wNitli
tilie
a.-roninen
t.,
'imat
trix
immmmit
mplicint
ioi
in'
ne
immigli1t
ict
rieve
the
enltire
p-rogmraill
foi
pertoimo1110
"iii
a
nl-
t
iilx
inult
ipdiclation
Onl
thle
computer.
(6)
Byx
cxaiim
ing'11
Hthe
storaaeo
at
agvnlevel,
one
(ain
dleteirmine
w
hat
flim~-
fai'
siniiiai'
items1.-
liave
beeni
stored.
Fom-
uxamplh
if
there
isnoctat'ion
for-
Eg-an.
.J.
P.,
it
is.
hut
a
step
or-
twom
:ik-
Ward,(
to
pick
til
the
trail
of
Egan,
James.
TheI
properties
*i
tist
described
(10
not
Include
all,
Ih
dcs,ii'ed
IoticeS,
but
t
1ev
1briig
comlpliter
stor,age
nit
I)
res-
omaiewtlIi
Inunan-Il
opcrat
ois
aiid
1
h1cii
p
ired
ilect
i
t
deigntet
uns
i
nanung
or
poiiit
ing.
I.).
Thle
Lau
qpiae
Problemi
Th'le
basic
(lissimiiliarity
between
humanzi
lanuptages,
aiiul
coinmutetr
languages
maty
be
tile
most
5scrious
ob)stacle
to
titme
svyimihioss.
It
is
retassur~ing,,
however,
to
niote
-what
goreat
st
ride~s
have
al
ready
been
imade,
thI
roughm
iiterpre-
tive
prog-ramls
aind
p.am'ticuh'larl
through
assemnbly
oi'
coml-
piling
lirogram.,s
5ic(i
as,
FRTWrAN,
to
adaICpt
computer-s
to
limimiaii
1,-language
form
ms.
The
-In
formua,ttion
Processinig
LangumaQ'e
of
Sl1iaw,
Newvell,
Sirmon,
(and
Ellistm
repies,ents
atiiotlmer-
line
of
ma
ppiroclhemment
Amid,
in
ALG()L
am
nI
i'c-
latedI
systems,
men
(
ame
provingu
their
flexibility
by
adopit-
ing
standard
formnulas~
of
r(1presenit'ation
aim
I
txpr'ess,iomn
lthat
ai'e
r'ea(lily
tr.anslattable
iiito
machine
langu-tage.
For
thie
pumrposes
of
meald-time
coopemration
l.etweetn
men
and(
compulters.~
it.
wXill
be
necesiary.
lhowevei',
to
iiiake
tmse
of
ami
additional1
and
matlier
ditfemrmit
principle
of
comimmunication
and(
control.
The
idea
iniv
ibe
highvi-
ligh-tedI
by
comparing'
Inistriuctiomis
omrdinarily
adl-dressed
to
initelligrenit
hm1anl
lbeiiig's
Xvith
imistiructions
om'(iniai'i
lv
tisedI
wXitli
coniptuter's.
The
lattfer
specify
preccisely
tIme
in-
dividuaxl
steps
to
take
and(
the
~sejuenled
inl
X
1imici
tdi
t`ake
thiem.
The
foriim'r
pr'esent
oi-
imuply
somiet.ltiniig
albout
iii-
(cenitive
or-
motivat.ion,
and(
tIhey
supplv
a
cr-iter-ioii
by
wh'liclh
tIme
hitmman
exectutor
ot
the
inistrtuctions
XX'ill
know
XX'hmenilit'
liaxs
axccoinplished
liis
task.
In
short
instri'ie-
tions
directed
to
comiputmttr
spemix'v
courses
istoIt'-
tionis
(lirected
to
hitnianl-i
beings
(,c
f
oals.
i\[cn
appeam'
t.o
thumiik
momrei
ritumi
ally,
antiesiyi
termums
of
gToals
th-an
mintiu
of
coturses.
Tirue,
tliey
usu-
ally
know
sometihing,
aliout.
directiomns
in
wh'lilh
to
travel
or
lines
along
wh'iieh
to
XX'ork,
bumt
fewv
star't,
ouit.
wXit.Ii
lire-
cisely
formutlated
itinera-ries.
Whrlo,
fom'
example.
wXould_l
j1;
J.
C.
Sillaxx'
A..
Newell.
H.
A.
Simci,om
lnmid
T.
0.
E'lUis.
'A
c'omimand
stri'etumre
fom'
complex
mInformiatmion
i!'csml.
prol'
11700C.
pp.
119-128;
May,
1958.
8
March
Authorized licensed use limited to: Cornell University. Downloaded on September 6, 2009 at 23:16 from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply.
Licklider:
Man-Computer
Symbiosis
depart
from
Boston
for
Los
Angeles
with
a
detailed
specification
of
the
route?
Instead,
to
paraphrase
Wiener,
mi-en
bound
for
Los
Angeles
try
continually
to
decrease
the
amount
by
which
they
are
not
yet
in
the
smog.
Computer
instruction
through
specification
of
goals
is
being
approached
along
two
paths.
The
first
involves
problemn-solving,
hill-climbing,
self-organizing
programs.
The
second
involves
real-time
concatenation
of
prepro-
grammed
segments
and
closed
subroutines
which
the
hu-
man
operator
can
designate
and
call
into
action
simply
bv
name.
Along
the
first
of
these
paths,
there
has
been
promis-
ing
exploratorv
work.
It
is
clear
tlhat,
working
within
the
loose
constraints
of
predetermined
strategies,
computers
will
in
due
course
be
able
to
devise
and
simplify
their
oNn
procedures
for
achieving
stated
goals.
Thus
far,
the
achievements
lhave
not
been
substantively
important;
they
have
constituted
only
"demonstration
in
principle."
Nevertheless,
the
implications
are
far-reaching.
Although
the
second
path
is
simpler
and
apparently
capable
of
earlier
realization,
it
has
been
relatively
neg-
lected.
Fredkin's
trie
memory
provides
a
promising
para-
digm.
We
may
in
due
course
see
a
serious
effort
to
de-
velop
computer
programs
that
can
be
connected
together
like
the
words
and
phrases
of
speech
to
do
whatever
computation
or
control
is
required
at
the
moment.
The
consideration
that
holds
back
such
an
effort,
apparently,
is
that
the
effort
would
produce
nothing
that,
would
be
of
great
value
in
the
context
of
existing
computers.
It
would
be
unrewarding
to
develop
the
language
before
there
are
any
computing
machines
capable
of
responding
mean-
ingfully
to
it.
E.
Ilput
and
Output
Equipmnent
The
departimient
of
data
processing
that
seems
least
ad-
v,anced,
in
so
far
as
the
requirements
of
man-computer
symbiosis
are
concerned,
is
the
one
that
deals
with
input
and
output
equipment
or,
as
it
is
seen
from
the
human
operator's
point
of
view,
displays
and
controls.
Immedi-
ately
after
saying
that,
it
is
essential
to
muake
qualifying
comments,
because
the
engineering
of
equipment
for
high-
spee(l
introduction
and
extraction
of
information
has
been
excellent,
and
because
soimie
very
sophisticated
display
and
control
techlniqtues
lhave
been
developed
in
such
re-
search
laboratories
as
the
Lincoln
Laboratory.
By
and
large,
in
generally
available
computers,
however,
there
is
almost
no
provision
for
any
more
effective,
immediate
man-machine
coillmmunication
than
can
be
achieved
with
an
electric
typewriter.
Displays
seemi-
to
be
in
a
somewhat
better
state
than
contirols.
Mlany
com-iputers
plot
graphs
on
oscilloscope
screens,
and
a
few
take
advantage
of
the
remarkable
capabilities,
graphical
and
symbolic,
of
the
charactron
display
tube.
Nowhlere,
to
my
knowledge,
however,
is
there
anything
approachiing
the
flexibility
and
conven-
ience
of
the
pencil
and
doodle
pad
or
the
clhalk
and
blackboard
used
by
men
in
technical
discussion.
1)
Desk-Surface
Display
and
Control:
Certainly,
for
effective
man-computer
interaction,
it
will
be
necessary
for
the
man
and
the
computer
to
draw
graphs
and
pic-
tures
and
to
write
notes
and
equations
to
each
other
on
the
same
display
surface.
The
man
should
be
able
to
present
a
function
to
the
computer,
in
a
rough
but
rapid
fashion,
by
drawing
a
graph.
The
computer
should
read
the
man's
writing,
perhaps
on
the
condition
that
it
be
in
clear
block
capitals,
and
it
should
immediately
post,
at
the
location
of
each
lhand-drawn
symbol,
the
correspond-
ing
chiaracter
as
interpreted
and
put
into
precise
type-
face.
With
such
an
input-output
device,
the
operator
would
quickly
learn
to
write
or
print
in
a
manner
legible
to
the
machine.
He
could
compose
instructions
and
sub-
routines,
set
them
into
proper
format,
and
check
them
over
before
introducing
them
finally
into
the
computer's
main
memory.
He
could
even
define
new
symbols,
as
Gilmiiore
and
Savell19
have
done
at
the
Lincoln
Labora-
tory,
and
present
them
directly
to
the
computer.
He
could
sketch
out
the
format
of
a
table
roughly
and
let
the
computer
shape
it
up
with
precision.
He
could
correct
the
computer's
data,
instruct
the
machine
via
flow
dia-
gramns,
and
in
general
interact
with
it
very
much
as
he
would
with
anothler
engineer,
except
that
the
"other
en-
gineer"
would
be
a
precise
draftsmiian,
a
liglhtning
calcu-
lator,
a
mnemonic
wizard,
and
many
other
valuable
part-
ners
all
in
one.
2)
Comiputer-Posted
TWalt
Display:
In
some
techno-
logical
systemus,
several
men
slhare
responsibility
for
con-
trolling
vehicles
wlhose
behaviors
interact.
Some
informa-
tion
Imlust
be
presented
simultaneously
to
all
the
men,
preferably
on
a
commiion
grid,
to
coordinate
their
actions.
Other
infor-mation
is
of
relevance
only
to
one
or
two
op-
erators.
There
would
be
only
a
confusion
of
uninterpret-
able
clutter
if
all
the
information
were
presented
on
one
display
to
all
of
them.
The
information
must
be
posted
by
a
computer,
since
manual
plotting
is
too
slow
to
keep
it
up
to
date.
The
problem
just
outlined
is
even
now
a
critical
one,
and
it
seems
certain
to
become
more
and
more
critical
as
timiie
goes
by.
Several
designers
are
convinced
that
displays
with
the
desired
characteristics
can
be
con-
structed
with
the
aid
of
flashing
lights
and
time-sharing
viewing
screens
based
on
the
light-valve
principle.
The
large
display
should
be
supplemented,
according
to
most
of
those
who
have
thought
about
the
problem,
by
individual
display-control
units.
The
latter
would
permit
the
operators
to
modifv
the
wall
display
without
leaving
their
locations.
For
some
purposes,
it
would
be
desirable
for
the
operators
to
be
able
to
communicate
with
the
computer
through
the
supplementary
displays
and
per-
haps
even
through
the
wall
display.
At
least
one
scheme
for
providing
such
communication
seems
feasible.
19
J.
T.
Gilmore
and
R.
E.
Savell,
"'The
Lincoln
Writer,"
Lin-
coln
Laboratory,
M.I.T.,
Lexington,
Mass.,
Rept.
51-8;
October,
1959.
9
1960
Authorized licensed use limited to: Cornell University. Downloaded on September 6, 2009 at 23:16 from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply.
IRE
'l'RAA'SA'(.'TIONS
ON
HULilAN
FACTORsS'
IN
ELEC'TROANJI(.11t
Thlie
large
xa11
dlisplay
and
its
associated
systemii
are
relevant,
of
course,
to
symbiotic
cooperaition
betweeni
a
conul)ter'
anti
a
teamii
of
mien.
Iahoratory
experiments
halv-e
ind(icatedI
rep)eatedly
thatm
informal,
pai'allel
at'-
iraiigements
of
operators,
coordinating
tleilr
activities
thl-rotughl
reference
t.o
a
lig
e
situation
display,
hlave
im-
poit
ant
adivantages
over
thie
am'rangement,
more
wi(lely
1se(d.
that.
locates
thie
opei'atoi's
at
ind(isvidutal
consoles
and.1
attemipts
to
correlate
tlheir
actionis
througlh
the
agelncy
of
a
compiuter.
This
one
of
several
operator-team
prol)-
leius
in
mueedl
of
careftil
sttudv.
3
AlIto?(tti
c
Speech
PIrodtulctioa
and
Recoginit:ion:
How
desirable
anid
how
feasible
is
speeel-c
commliiiuication
between
humiiiian
operattons
anuid
computimig
mnachines?
That
coin)ound
qIuestion
i,s
aslked
wv
ienexer
sophisticated
data-
P
rocessing
systems
ame
discusse.
Engineers
wlho
work
andl
live
wN-itlh
computers
take
a
conservative
attitude
to-
ward
tlie
desiirahilit.y.
Engineeis
whlo
ht.ave
hia(l
experi-
eince
in
tile
fie]ld
of
automatic
s)eech
iecognition
take
a
consemvttive
attittdle
toward
the
feasibility.
Yet
thlere
is
conltinuliino
interes,
t
in
the
idlea
of
talkin-g
with
computing
niachine.s;.
In
laige
<paint,
the
interest
stenvis
frolm
iecaliza-
tiOlo
tlalit
onte
can-m
hardly
taket
inilitarv
comman(Jei'
or
a
coitpo)ratioCn
president
awav
fm-omni
his
wlomk
to
teacll
him
to
type.
If
Co111pltinlg
macl>teihmleS
ar'e
eve'r
to
b.e
usedl
di-
'ectliy
by
to)p-level
decision
maker's.
it
m1ay
b)e
woitli-
Nxxliile
t.o
lprovide
coiimumiicat.oioi
vi.a
thle
m-no.st
nat,ural
nicans,,
even
at
comisidemralde
cost.
Preliiminairv
analvsi
of
his
problems
anud1
tiiime
scales
suggests
thlat,
a
corpl)oration
piresidlent
wouldl
be
intferested
in
a
svinhiofic
associatioIn
withl
a
comiputer
only
s
anl
avocation.
Bsiiness
situat
ions
usiual
iv
ove
sleIVly
eniouiglh
thalt
there
is
tim,e
for
h)riefings
anidI
conferen1ees.
It
seeniis
iea
sonable.
tlerefore.
for
comptiter
specialists
to
be
the
ones
wxlho
interact
(lireetly
withl
computers
in
btmsiness
offices.
Time
military
comumander,
oni
the
otheml
hand,
faces
a,
grealter
probability
of
h-aving
to
mi-iake
critical
decisions
in
shmoitt
iintervals
of
timine.
It
is
easy
to
overdramatize
thle
not,ion
of
time
ten-minute
wamr,
but
it,
would
be
dangemous
to
couint
on
having
moire
tbhia
teIn
minliutes
in
wvhich
to
nmake
a
critical
(lecisiorn.
As
military
system
ground(c
en-
ironments
and
control
centers
grow
in
eapah)ility
and
complexity,
ther'efore,
a
real
reqcuiremeent
for
automatic
speecl
l)ro(ltdction
andI
r'ecognition
in
conmpuiters
seems
likely
to
(develop.
Certainly',
if
thle
equipmiienit
were
al-
m'eadtv
developed,
reliable,
anii
av'ailalble,
it
xxvould
be
used.
In
so
far
as
feasibility
is
concerned,
speeeh
lpoduc-
tion
poses
less
severe
pmoblerns
of
a
teclhnical
nattuie
than
does
automatic
recogniition
of
sh)eecli
souinds.
A
comiimer-
cial
electm'onic
digital
voltmeter
noIw'
ieads
alotud
its
inci-
cations,
dligit
by
dligit..
For
eight
or
ten
vears,
at.
the
Bell
Telephone
Laboratomies.
the
Royal
Institute
of
Technol-
ogv
(Stockholm),
thie
Signals
Research
and
Development
Establishment
(Chmristcimrch)
f
thie
Haskins
Laboratory,
aind
the
M\as-9sachusetts
Institute
of
Tecelhnologv,
Dtuinnl.2"
Fant,21
Lawrence,-2
toii)e',":
Stetx'ei)'/4
anti
tlie
il
(C0-
workers,
hi.ave
demonstiatted
suecessive
generation's
of
in.-
telligible
auitomiiatic
t.alkers.
Recent:
work
at.
the
liaskli,-ns
Laboratory
htns
led
to
thle
dlevelol)pment
of
a
igitat
0o
ic,
suitable
for
uise
by
coniputing
mnachines,
that
ia-lkes
an
tIUt(-)lleltitY0i(*(tItt.etl.
illt(ljig'i_)je
C
)llllj,t'('(te
(tji9(.(-jl
'2t--
aut.omlatic
voic
tQ
inelglecilctd
lieii's
C
The.
feasibility
of
automatatic
speech
reco"nit
ion
Ic-
pendsi
heavily
upon
the
size
of
thle
voc
abul
11
y
of
wodsc
to
be
recognized
and
upon
tlhe
dlivenlsity
of
talkers
tindi
accent.s
withi
which
it,
must
wvork.
Nin(tNe
hiht
per
(c(ent
Correct,
recoonlitionl
of
naturally
spoken
du
no
ii
dgiats4
Wtas
denllonstrate(d
sever,al
ye(ars
ago
at
tli(e
Iie
lreic-
phone
Laboratories
anald
t
the
Ininc
oln
Laboratoiv
To
go
ot
a,tep
up
thlescale
of
i
(v
ciaulary
Size,
wec
11tay
say
tihiat
an
aL-tutoniatic
i'ecognizer
of
Clelyk-
s
Z
ok
iI
al
t-
iiumcrlical
characters
cani
almost
urelh-
be
developed
inowx
oni
thlie
basis
of
existing
knowxIleoe.t
1.
`n11ee
untilail-n11
op-
erators
cani
r(e-ad
at
leat
a4
s
napidli
iasz
trained
olCis
can
type,
i
suci
1i
a
Cvice
would
lie
.l
convenient
too1)l
illn
:d-
nmos-t
aiiy
c(iliputer'
instalklati0)m.
Flor
real-time
inteCilactionl
OIl
a
truly
s5Vliio)it
level,
however,
a
voc
abularv
of
about.
2000()
wods,
e.q.
1(000
Wor(m's
of
smllnetfliang
like
basic
English
ai(l(
1000
telinical
t,erins.
would
prolbably
he
re
uire(l.
That
com
istit
at
Cs
a
cliallening
p)ro)lecm.
hli
the
con.,;sen-s.us
of
acoust
ileans
an1
linguists,
construction
of
a
recognizer
of
2000
wvords
(c.1tm11Ot
lie
a(.co
ni)|i
shCdl
1,loW.
fowever,
there
aic
several
o
rg
anizations
t1hatt
x
oull
happily
uidllCrttik
(
to
dvelop
and
alitomliatic
rectolOnizer
1o
Such
a
voealablary
oni
a
five-
-eam'
basis.
They
w
ould
stipulate
thatit.
thle
s
peech
he
clear
speech1
dicta.
tioni
style
witho1lt.
1unusual
accenl
t.
Altlioug-h
detailed
(lisellbsionl
of
tc('hni(
lies
of
anto-
matic
;pIeeIh
recognitmon
m1j
beyo
td
the
lrescuit.
scope
it
iS
fitt
ino
to
iiote
'liLt
1)1
o11niting
ina('chinms
a
icling
aL
(d011ii1iitl.t
role
inl
the
dlevelop)melmt.
of
alto
latic
sipeccli
rTcoO
zr1
s.
Th1ey
have
contr
iibut
ed
tie
iinpeijetus
that
20I
H.
K.
Duiiin,
"Tlhe
calculation
of
vowel
re-
olulmces,
ail(l
nll
electrical
vocal
tract,"
J
.
Acoast.
Soc.
A.m
x
ol.
22,
pp).
740-7d53:
November,
1950.
1G.
Falnt,
"On
thle
Acotustic
of
Spee
i,"
paper
repseslted
at
the
Third
Internati.
Congress
on
A\ouostius,
St.littgart,
C'er.:
Sep-
tembier,
1959.
22
XV.
Lawr,ence,
et
(l.,
;"Mlethods
an(l
Puirposes
of'
Seellh
Syn-
thlesis,"
Signals
Res.
and
Dev.
Estab.,
Ministry
of
Supply,
Chlist-
chulrlichi,
Hants
England,
Rept.
56/1457;
MIarch,
1956.
23
F.
S.
Cooper,
et
al..
"Some
experiments
on
the
percep)tion
of
synthetic
speech
sounds,"
J.
Acousf.
Soc.
A
ier.,
vol.
24.
pp.
597-
606:
November,
1952.
24
K.
N.
Stevens,
S.
Kasowski,
and
CI.
.
Fant,
"Electric
analog
of
t.he
vocal
tract,"
J.
Aco.st.
Soc.
.4Amner.,
vol.
25,
pp.
734-742;
July,
1953.
A.
M.
Libenlnan.
F.
Ingel-anai,
L.
LiskerC,
1).
Delatre1,
andI
F.
S
.
Cooper,
"MIinimal
Irtules
for
sy\nthesizing
speecl,'
.J.
Acoust.
Soc.
Amen.'
vol.
31,
pp.
1490-1499;
N4ovember,
1959.
K6
K.
H.
Davis,
R.
Biddulph,
and
S.
Balashek,
"Automatil
m
ecogn'ition
of
spoken
digits,"
in
XV.
Jackson,
"4Comnmnication
Theoi'y,"
Butterworths
Scientific
Puhlictattions,
London.
Eng.,
pp.
433-441:
1953.
2
J.
W.
Forgie
and
C.
D.
Forgic,
"Results
obtained
fi'omn
a
vowel
iecognition
coipluter
proginam,"
J.
Acoust.
Soc.
Amer..
-ol.
31,
pp.
1480-1489;
November,
1959.
W(
,.l
.1arch'1
Authorized licensed use limited to: Cornell University. Downloaded on September 6, 2009 at 23:16 from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply.
Bush.,
et
al.:
Pattern
Recognition
and
Display
Characteristics
accounts
for
the
present
optimism,
or
rather
for
the
opti-
mism
presently
found
in
some
quarters.
Two
or
three
years
ago,
it
appeared
that
automatic
recognition
of
size-
able
vocabularies
would
not
be
achieved
for
ten
or
fifteen
years;
that
it
would
havre
to
await
much
further,
gradual
accumulation
of
knowledge
of
acoustic,
phonetic,
linguis-
tic,
and
psychological
proceeses
in
speech
communica-
tion.
Now,
howvever,
many
see
a
prospect
of
accelerating
the
acquisition
of
that
knowledge
with
the
aid
of
com-
puter
processing
of
speech
signals,
and
not
a
few
work-
ers
have
the
feeling
that
sophisticated
computer
pro-
grams
will
be
able
to
perform
well
as
speech-pattern
recognizers
even
witlhout
the
aid
of
muclh
substantive
knowledge
of
speech
signals
and
processes.
Putting
those
two
considerations
together
brings
the
estimate
of
the
time
required
to
achieve
practically
significant
speech
recognition
down
to
perlhaps
five
years,
the
five
years
just
mentioned.
Pattern
Recognition
and
Display
Characteristics*
W.
R.
BUSHt,
R.
B.
KELLY4,
AND
V.
Ml.
DONAHUEt
Summary-This
paper
reports
experimental
results
of
human
operator
performance
in
a
visual
recognition
task.
The
work
began
with
a
method
of
generating
families
of
complex
patterns
to
simulate
certain
characteristics
of
visual
sensor
displays,
such
as
radar
and
infrared
returns.
The
experimental
effort
was
directed
toward
establishing
criteria
for
predicting
human
operator
performance
in
a
map-matching
task.
The
operators'
task
was
to
recognize
which
of
four
patterns
presented simul-
taneously
with
a
reference
pattern
belonged
to
the
reference
pattern
family.
The
measure
of
performance
was
the
time
in
seconds
taken
by
the
operator
to
make
a
selection.
Response
times
were
more
rapid
when
the
reference
pattern
was
less
complex
than
the
comparison
than
when
the
reference
pattern
was
the
more
complex.
Analysis
of
the
display
characteristics
led
to
the
selection
of
four
physical
measures
to
be
used
in
pre-
dicting
operator
performance.
These
measures-pattern
length,
pattern
density,
and
two
measures
of
pattern
complexity-cor-
related
highly
with
response
time,
were
not
highly
intercorre-
lated,
and
were
applicable
to
natural
sensor
returns.
The
four
measures
were
found
to
account
for
a
high
degree
of
the
total
variance.
Regression
equations
were
derived
which
predict
per-
formance
from
known
values
of
the
four
measures.
INTRODUCTION
ECENT
developments
in
high-speed,
high-alti-
tudce
aircraft
have
imposed
increased
demands
on
the
visual
performance
of
the
human
operator.
Typical
operational
tasks
include
the
monitoring
of
com-
plex
navigational,
target
and
predictive
displays.
A
rep-
resentative
problem
encountered
in
the
study
of
visual
*
Manuscript
received
by
the
PGHFE,
December,
1959;
re-
vised
manuscript
received,
January
13,
1960.
This
research
was
performed
under
the
sponsorship
of
the
Radio
Corporation
of
America.
t
Missile
Electronics
and
Controls
Div.,
Radio
Corporation
of
America,
Burlington,
Mass.
i
Dunlap
and
Associates,
Santa
Monica,
Calif.;
formerly
with
Missile
Electronics
and
Contr
ols
Div.,
Radio
Corporation
of
America,
Burlington,
Mass.
performance
under
field
conditions
is
that
of
"map-
matclhing,"
by
which
radar
operators
orient
with
the
ground.
This
task
involves
the
comparison
of
two
com-
plex
pattern
displays
in
order
to
determine
whether
a
reference
pattern
is
contained
within
a
comparison.
If
performance
is
to
be
predicted
and
improved
in
this
sit-
uation,
research
must
be
conducted
to
identify
the
rele-
vant
variables
and
any
interactions
wlhich
may
exist
among
them.
Hake1
lhas
discussed
a
number
of
the
factors
influenc-
ing
pattern
vision.
Among
these
are
the
amount
or
den-
sity
of
information
contained
in
the
display,
time
re-
quirements,
contrast
between
coimponent
parts,
adapta-
tion,
and
a
number
of
operator
conditions,
including
training
and
expectancies.
Little
past
research
relates
directly
to
the
field
conditions
discussed,
either
in
terms
of
time
restrictions
or
of
the
type
and
complexity
of
the
stimulus
materials.
As
Hake
points
out,
results
depencd
to
a
considerable
extent
upon
specific
methodology.
This
fact
would
seem
to
justify
a
close
correspondence
be-
tween
experimental
conditions
and
that
particular
situa-
tion
about
which
recommendations
are
to
be
made.
Boynton
and
Bush,2
using
various
sorts
of
geometric
forms,
have
determined
that
the
probability
of
recogni-
tion
of
a
critical
target
embedded
within
other
forms
de-
creases
linearly
with
the
logarithlm
of
the
number
of
con-
fusion
forms.
It
is
predicted
from
these
data
that
per-
formance
will
differ
depending
on
the
number
of
elements
1
H.
W.
Hake,
"Contribtutions
of
Psychology
to
the
Studs-
of
Pattern
Vision,"
Wright
Air
DeNr.
Center,
Dayton,
Ohio,
Teclh.
Rept.
57-621;
October,
1957.
-
R.
M.
Bovnton
and
W.
R.
Buish,
"Recognition
of
forms
against
a
complex
backgrotund,"
J.
Opt.
Soc.
Amer.,
vol.
46,
pp.
758-763;
September,
1956.
1960
11
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Discussion

Licklider didn't know it then, but this unofficial experiment prepared the way for the invention of interactive computing. J.C.R. Licklider’s article, “Man-Computer Symbiosis,” was the opening piece in the inaugural issue (March 1960) of the electrical engineering journal, IRE Transactions on Human Factors in Electronics. The journal ceased publications just 2 years later in 1962. We are close to achieving the complete man-computer symbiosis that Licklider envisions here- where humans process data in unthinkable ways with a tight coupling to machines. There are now many companies and initiatives ranging from Facebook's brain-computer interface, to Darpa projects to Elon Musk's Neuralink company that are all working towards this tight coupling. Neuralink in particular is working on a cloud based artificial intelligent extension of our brains, an augmentation of human intelligence that is closest to Licklider's vision. Although we can perform incredible computations far exceeding human processing with the power of smartphones and personal computers, we have not yet achieved his ultimate vision. Many believe that the years of man-computer symbiosis will be the most creative and exciting in the history of mankind as we make scientific and intellectual discoveries at an exponential pace. The rapid rise of computing power with Moore's law and our generation of bigger and bigger data sets has already impacted every scientific discipline; the man-computer symbiosis driven by artificial intelligence would lead to our exponential ability to analyze these data sets and make even more discoveries. It is interesting that Licklider puts a time table on our ability to use man-computer symbiosis. He says we will have "15 years to use it. The 15 may be 10 or 500". What occurs after those 10 to 500 years is presumably an artificial intelligence that outperforms even a man-computer symbiosis. Licklider's predictions are a bit ambitious in terms of their time horizon (it is crazy to think that the technology could improve so exponentially from 1960 when he wrote this article to 1980) but they have for the most part come true. Problem solving and thinking of military significance is currently done by military strategists with access to incredible computing ability/power, and artificial intelligence is not yet the standard for decision making. It is reasonable to project that for military decisions that need to be made on a minute/second time scale, computers and artificial intelligence will no doubt outperform humans soon. The use of military AI will not doubt be a matter of immense debate. Organizations like Open AI are currently researching different ethical issues of AI in anticipation of this future. Joseph Carl Robnett Licklider (March 1915 – June 1990), was an American psychologist, and computer scientist and is one of the most important figures in the history of computer science and computing. He is one of the first people to foresee modern-style interactive computing and its application to all manner of activities; and he was an internet pioneer who had an early vision of a worldwide computer network long before it was built. His predictions and actions actually initiated the internet by funding research which led to much of it, including today's graphical user interphase, and the ARPANET, the direct predecessor to the Internet. Among other things, he has been called “computing’s Johnny Appleseed", for planting the seeds of computing in the digital age; Robert Taylor, founder of Xerox PARC's Computer Science Laboratory and Digital Equipment Corporation's Systems Research Center, noted that "most of the significant advances in computer technology—including the work that my group did at Xerox PARC—were simply extrapolations of Lick's vision. They were not really new visions of their own. So he was really the father of it all”. Licklider's paper not only presents a remarkably prescient prediction of the future, but also inspires many people, like Robert Taylor, to work towards achieving his vision. Licklider spent much of his career pushing towards man-computer symbiosis. In 1962, Licklider was asked to lead to ARPA departments: Behavioral Sciences and Command and Control. One of his main tasks with this position was to find a better use for computers other than numerical calculations. In order to accomplish this, Licklider sought out top computer research institutions and opened research contracts with them. Among these institutions were Stanford, UCLA, and Berkeley. This group, named the Intergalactic Computer Network by Licklider, were eventually part of the group that created ARPANET; the precursor to the internet. Licklider directed ARPA, a government agency, from 1962 to 1964. Using government funds, he supported inventors whose creativeness led to: personal computing, creating the first online community; the mouse, onscreen windows, hypertext, word processing; and the ARPAnet, the prequel to the Internet.