Fermat's Library | Man-computer symbiosis annotated/explained version.

IRE

TRANSACTIONS

ON

HUMiAN

FACTORS

IN

ELECTRONICMr;h

Man-Computer

Symbiosis*

J.

C.

R.

LICKLIDERt

Summary-Man-computer

symbiosis

is

an

expected

develop-

ment

in

cooperative

interaction

between

men

and

electronic

computers.

It

will

involve

very

close

coupling

between

the

human

and

the

electronic

members

of

the

partnership.

The

main

aims

are

1)

to

let

computers

facilitate

formulative

thinking

as

they

now

facilitate

the

solution

of

formulated

problems,

and

2)

to

enable

men

and

computers

to

cooperate

in

making

decisions

and

controlling

complex

situations

without

inflexible

dependence

on

predetermined

programs.

In

the

anticipated

symbiotic

part-

nership,

men

will

set

the

goals,

formulate

the

hypotheses,

deter-

mine

the

criteria,

and

perform

the

evaluations.

Computing

machines

will

do

the

routinizable

work

that

must

be

done

to

prepare

the

way

for

insights

and

decisions

in

technical

and

scientific

thinking.

Preliminary

analyses

indicate

that

the

sym-

biotic

partnership

will

perform

intellectual

operations

much

more

effectively

than

man

alone

can

perform

them.

Prerequisites

for the

achievement

of

the

effective,

cooperative

association

include

developments

in

computer

time

sharing,

in

memory

components,

in

memory

organization,

in

programming

lan-

guages,

and

in

input

and

output

equipment.

1.

INTRODUCTION

A.

.ipibiosis

r

v

HE

fig

tree

is

pollinated

only

by

the

insect

Bla.sto-

/li(aJa

gr'ossor'ItnR2.

Tile

larva

of

time

insect

lives

in

the

ovary

of

the

fig

tr

ee,

and

tlhere

it

gets

its

food.

The

tree

andl

time

insect,

ar

e

thus

heavily

inter-

dle)epndent:

the

tree

cannot.

relrodluce

xvitlhout

the

insect;

the

insect

cannot

eat

wsitlhout

the

tree;

together,

tlheyr

consitutte

not

only

a

vialile

but

a

productive

and

thriving

p)artnershilp.

This

cooperative

"living

togethler

in

inti-

mnate

association,

or

even

close

uinioni,

of

txvo

dissimiiilar

organismnis"

is

called

symliiosis.1

Man-computer

symbiosis

is

a

stibelass

of

man-

imaeline

systemns."

There

ar

e

many

milani-

machl-inie

sys-

temiis.

At

present,

hoxvever,

there

are

no

mnan-comliuter

svimbioses.

The

piurposes

of

this

paper

are

to

present

the

concept

and,

hopefully,

to

foster

the

development

of

man-computer

symbiosis

a-Ilalyzin;g

some

probilem's

of

interaction

between

miien

an(I

computing

machines.,

calling

attention

to

ap)plicable

prineililes

of

miian-machline

eniginiecring,

anci

l)ointing

otit

a

fex-

quiestions

to

which

resetarch

ansxvers

are

needledl.

The

hoiie

is

tlhat,

in

not

too

many

years,

humiiiian

blrain.s

and

computing

imiachiines

MaNinuscrlipt

receivedl

by

the

PGHFEk

Jmnuary

13.

1960;

re-

vise(l

manuscript

received,

Januiary

18.

1960.

The

backgrouind

worik

on

which

this

paper

is

basdcl

wv'as

suipported

largely

by

the

Behavioral

Sciences

Di-isioni,

Air

Force

Office

of

Scientific

Re-

searcl,

'Air

Research

and

Development

Command,

thiotigh

Con-

tract

No.

AF-49(638)-355.

t

Bolt

Ber-anek

and

Newiman

Inc.,

Caml1br

idge,

ailss.

1

"Welister's

New

International

Dietionary,"

2n(l

e(i.,

G.

andl

C.

Mlerriam

Co.,

Springfield,

Mass.,

p.

2555;

1958.

'iIi

lie

coupled

together

very

tiglhtly,

anid

tlclt.

the

ie-

suilting

partnershil)

xvill

tliink

as

ino

hluimian

brain

has

ever

tlhotiglit

and

process

data

in

a

way

not

approached

by

the

information-handling

machinies

w-e

kniow

todlay.

P).

Betwveen?

"'Mechanicalt

E.Lxted

11e(Ilan

and'

l

"'A

rtificial

In

telliyen

ce'

As

a

concelpt,

mnaii-computer

syml)iosis

is

diflerent

inI

an

important

way

frioimi

whaIt

North2

has

called

"ie-

chanicallyv

extendeci

imian."

In

the

miiain-mlaelline

sNsteims

of

the

l)ast,

the

lhtumiian

operator

suI)l)lie(l

the

initiative,

the

(dlirection,

the

integration,

an1

the

criterion.

Th1e

imiechlaIiceal

l)arts

of

thie

syst'ems

wvere

mnere

extellnsions.

fir;st.

of

the

lhumiiani

armii.

tlhen

of

the

hluiima-n

eye.

These

sy.stems

certalinly

did

Inot

con,sist.

of

"dissimilar

organ-

isms

livinog

together

.

There

wa-as

onfly,

one

kiindl

of

organlism-man

1la

ndl

.

the

r

est

was

there

onlyv

to

help

In

onie

sense

of

cotur.se,

any

mlaii-iiia(le

system

is

ill-

tended

to

lhell)

mlan,

to

hielp)

a

imaan

or

iien

outsidle

the

svstemi.

If

wN-e

focus

upon

the

htumi-ani

operator

(s)

w\ithIinl

the

system,

however,

w

-e

see

that,

in

some

areas

of

tech-i-

nology,

a

fanitastic

clhainge

lias

taken

l)lace

clur

ing,

the

last,

few

y

7ears.

"Mlechanical

extension"

hias

given

way

to

replacement

of

miien,

to

automatio,

an(l

the

miieni

wh-llo

remain

are

tlher

e

more

to

liel)

tlhani

to

be

helped.

In

sonce

instances,

particularly

in

large

comp)uter-centeredl

in

formiiiatioIn

andi

contirol

systems.

thle

hiumiian

operators

arle

resl)onsiile

mainly

for

functions

thiat

it

mroved

ini-

feasibile

to

automiiate.

Such

11svstenis

('humanlv

extenidedl

mnachines',

Noirtlh

iimiglht

call

them)

arc

nIot

symii'iotiC

systems.

Tlhe

are

"semi-aut,omatic'

systems,

systems

th1at!

stcarted

otit,

to

he

fully

atutoiimatic

hut,

fe

sllor

t

of

thle

gotal.

MI\an-computer

symbiosis

is

prol)al)ly

not

the

ultimIate

par.adigmin

for

complex

technological

systems.

It,

seeins

entit-ely

)ossible

tlat,

in

dlue

course,

electronic

oi'

chem-

ic;al

"'miacllines'

vill

outdo

thle

lhunmai

brain

in

m-iost

of

thlle

fullntions

we

now

consi(der

exclusivelv

wN-ithlini

its>

province.

Even

now,

(eclernter's

IBAI-704

pr'ogramil

forl

pr'oving

theorems

In

plane

geometry

lp)roceedls

at

talout

tihe

same

pace

as

Brooklyn

hiiglh

selool

students,

awld

makes

silmilar

errors.3

There

are,

in

fact,

several

thieoiell-e-

2J.

D.

Northi,

'The

rational

behlavior

of

mechanically

extended

man,"

Boulton

Paul

Aircraft

Ltd..

Wolverhampton.

Eng.;

Sep-

tenmber,

1954.

2

H.

Gelernter,

"Realization

of

a.

G(eomnetnr

Theorem

Pro-ing

Machine."

ITnesco,

NS,

ICIP,

1.6.6,

Internatl.

Conf.

on

Informna-

tioil

Proves-s.ing,

Paris.i,

France:

Jine.

1959.

4

lHarch.

Authorized licensed use limited to: Cornell University. Downloaded on September 6, 2009 at 23:16 from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply.

Licklider:

Man-Computer

Symbiosis

proving,

problem-solving,

chess-playing,

and

pattern-

recognizing

programs

(too

iiany

for

complete

refer-

ence4-15)

capable

of

riv

aling

humiian

intellectual

perform-

ance

in

restricted

areas;

and

Newell,

Simon,

and

Shaw'sl6

'general

prolblem

solver"

may

r

emove

some

of

the

re-

strictions.

In

slhort,

it

seems

worthwhile

to

avoid

argu-

ment

Nitlh

(other)

entlhusiasts

for

artificial

intelligence

by

conceding

dcominance

in

the

distant

future

of

cere-

bration

to

miiachlines

alone.

There

ill

nevertheless

be

a

faiirly

long

interimii

during

wlhiel

the

miiain

intellectual

advances

will

be

miiade

by

miien

anl

comlputers

working

togetlher

in

intimiiat*e

association.

A

miiultidisciplinary

st.udy

groul),

examiiining

future

research

and

develop-

ment

problems

of

the

Air

Force,

estimated

that

it

would

be

1980

before

dev-elopmiients

in

artificial

intelligence

miiake

it

)ossible

for

miiachines

alone

to

do

much

thinking

or

problem

solving

of

military

significance.

That

would

leave,

say,

fiv-e

years

to

develop

man-computer

symbiosis

and

1.5

years

to

use

it.

The

15

miiay

be

10

or

500,

but

those

years

slhould

be

intellectually

the

most

creative

and

ex-

citing

in

the

hiistory

of

mankind.

II.

AIMiS

OF

i\IAN-COMPUTER

SYMBIOSIS

Present-day

computers

are

designed

primarily

to

solve

preformulated

problems

or

to

process

data

accord-

ing

to

predeterminedl

procedures.

The

course

of

the

com-

putation

may

be

conditional

upon

results

obtained

dur-

ing

the

computation,

but

all

the

alternatives

must

be

foreseen

in

advance.

(If

an

unforeseen

alternative

arises,

4.A.

Newell

and

J.

C.

Shaw,

"Programming

the

logic

theory

machine,"

Piroc.

WJCC,

pp.

230-240;

March,

1957.

5

P.

C.

Gilmore,

"A

Program

for

the

Production

of

Proofs

for

Theorems

Derivable

Within

the

First

Order

Predicate

Calcultus

from

Axioms,"

Unesco,

NS,

ICIP,

1.6.14,

Internatl.

Conf.

on

Information

Processing,

Paris,

France;

June,

1959.

6

B.

G.

Farley

and

W.

A.

Clark,

"Simtulation

of

self-organizing

systems

by

digital

computer

s,"

IRE

TRANS.

ON

INFORMATION

THEORY,

vol.

IT-4,

pp.

76-84;

September,

1954.

7R.

M.

Friedberg,

"A

learning

machine:

Part

I,"

IBM

J.

Res.

&

Dev.,

vol.

2,

pp.

2-13;

January,

1958.

O.

G.

Selfridge,

"Pandemonium,

a

paradigm

for

learming,"

Proc.

Symp.

Mechanisation

of

Tho?ight

Processes,

Natl.

Physical

Lab.,

Teddington,

Eng.;

November,

1958.

9

W.

Bledsoe

and

I.

Browning,

"Pattern

Recognition

and

Reading

by

Machine,"

presented

at

the

Eastern

Joint

Computer

Conf.,

Boston,

Mass.,

December,

1959.

10

C.

E.

Shannon,

"Programming

a

computer

for

playing

chess,"

Phil.

Mag.,

vol.

41,

pp.

256-75;

March,

1950.

11

A.

Newell,

"The

chess

machine:

an

example

of

dealing

with

a

complex

task

by

adaptation,"

Proc.

TVJCC,

pp.

101-108;

March,

1955.

12

A.

Bernstein

and

M.

deV.

Roberts,

"Computer

versus

chess-

player,"

Scientific

American,

vol.

198,

pp.

96-98;

June,

1958.

13

A.

Newell,

J.

C.

Shaw,

and

H.

A.

Simon,

"Chess-playing

programs

and

the

problem

of

complexity,"

IBM

J.

Res.

&

Dev.,

vol.

2,

pp.

320-335;

October,

1958.

14H.

Sherman,

"A

Quasi-Topological

Method

for

Recognition

of

Line

Patterns,"

Unesco,

NS,

ICIP,

H.L.5,

Internatl.

Conf.

on

Information

Processing,

Paris,

France;

June,

1959.

15

G.

P.

Dinneen,

"Programming

pattern

recognition,"

Proc.

WVJCC,

pp.

94-100;

March,

1955.

16

A.

Newell,

H.

A.

Simon,

and

J.

C.

Shaw,

"Report

on

a

gen-

eral

problem-solving

program,"

Unesco,

NS,

ICIP,

1.6.8,

Internatl.

Conf.

on

Information

Processing,

Paris,

France;

June,

1959.

the

whole

process

comes

to

a

halt

and

awaits

the

neces-

sary

extension

of

the

program.)

The

requirement

for

preformulation

or

predeterimination

is

sometimes

no

great

disadlvantage.

It

is

often

said

that

programming

for

a

computing

miiachine

forces

one

to

think

clearly,

that

it

disciplines

the

thouglht

process.

If

the

user

can

think

hiis

problem

througlh

in

adv

ance,

symbiotic

association

Nwitlh

a

computing

machine

is

not

necessary.

Howev-er,

many

problems

that

can

be

thlought

tlhrough

in

adv-ance

are

very

difficult

to

think

tlhrough

in

ad-

vance.

They

would

be

easier to

solve,

and

tlhey

could

be

solve(l

faster,

through

an

intuitively

guided

trial-and-

error

procedure

in

wNlhich

the

computer

cooperated,

turn-

ing

up

flaws

in

the

reasoning

or

revealing

unexpected

turns

in

the

solution.

Other

problems

simiiply

cannot

be

formulated

without

computing-machine

aid.

Poincare

anticipated

the

frustration

of

an

important

group

of

would-be

computer

users

wlhen

lhe

said,

"The

question

is

not,

'Wlhat

is

the

answer?'

The

question

is,

'What

is

the

question?''Y

One

of

the

main

aims

of

man-computer

symlbiosis

is

to

bring

the

computing

maclhine

effectively

into

the

formulative

parts

of

technical

problems.

The

other

main

aim

is

closely

related.

It

is

to

bring

comiputing

iimachines

effectively

into

processes

of

think-

ing

that

miiust

go

on

in

"real

time,"

time

that

moves

too

fast

to

permit

using

computers

in

conventional

ways.

Imagine

trying,

for

example,

to

direct

a

battle

with

the

aid

of

a

computer

on

such

a

schledule

as

this.

YoU

formulate

your

problemi

today.

Tomnorrow

you

spend

witlh

a

programmer.

the

computer

devotes

5

minutes

to

assembling

your

program

and

47

seconds

to

calculating

the

answer

to

your

problem.

You

get

a

sheet

of

paper

20

feet

long,

full

of

numbers

that,

instead

of

providing

a

final

solution,

only

suggest

a

tactic

that

should

be

explored

by

simiiulation.

Obviously,

the

battle

would

be

over

before

the

second

step

in

its

planning

was

begun.

To

tlhink

in

interaction

with

a

computer

in

the

same

way

that

you

think

witlh

a

colleague

whose

com-

petence

supplements

your

own

will

require

much

tighter

coupling

between

mian

and

maclhine

than

is

suggested

by

the

example

and

than

is

possible

today.

III.

NEED

FOR

COMPUTER

PARTICIPATION

IN

FORMULATIVE

AND

REAL-TIME

THINKING

The

preceding

paragraphs

tacitly

made

the

assuml-p-

tion

that,

if

they

could

be

introduced

effectively

into

the

thought

process,

the

functions

that

can

be

performed

by

data-processing

machines

would

improve

or

facilitate

thinking

and

problem

solving

in

an

important

way.

That

assumption

may

require

justification.

A.

A

Prelimninary

and

Infornmal

Timne-and-MlIotion

Analysis

of

Technical

Thinking

Despite

the

fact

that

there

is

a

voluminous

literature

on

thinking

and

problem

solving,

including

intensive

5

1960

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IRE

TRANSACTIONS

ON

HUMilAN

FACTORS

IN

ELECTRONIC,'S

1lrh

case-hiistor-y

studies

of

the

process

of

ineto,

ol

findc

nothiing

comparab

le

to

a

t.ime-an(ndinotion-study

anail"Ysis

of

the

mienital

wNor-k

of

'a

person

engagedl

in

a

scientific

or-

techniical

enterl)rise.

In

the

sp)inMg

and

sumii-

mier,

of

1957,

therefore,

I

tried

to)

keep)

track

of

wh-lat

onle

mlo(ler-atelv

technical

person

actually

do

(lI(

dring

thec

hourns

hie

regardle(d

as

dlevotedl

to

work.

Althouigh

I

wvas.

aware

of

the

inadcc{uiacv

of

thle

s~ainpling,

I

servedl

as

1iiv

ownN1

suihrect.

It,

510011

became

applarlclit

that

the

maIc-in

thinlg

I

did

was--

to

keel)

records,

and-

th

p

rojcect

wvouldh

hiave

become

anti

inifinite

regress

if

the

keeplingo

of

records

hiad

been

carried

t

lir-ough-

in

the

detail

(nvisae(ld

In

th-e

initiRal.

plan.

It,

wa's

nlot.

'Neverthlele"ss

I

obta-inled

a

p)icture

of

ny

activities

thiat.

gave

mie

pauise.

Perhaps

mly

spect

i'um1

is

niot.

typical-I

hope

it

is

niot,

b..ut

I

fear-

it,

is.

About,

85

per

cenit

of

my

'thin-king'

time

was

spen-t,

0'oettHio-

itito

a

p)osition

to

thintk,

to

matke

a

decision,

to

l

earni

somet-hing

I

nieedled

to

kniowN.

Mutch

more

timeA

wnNCit.

inlto

find(inlg

or-

obtainling

in1forma1,-tion

than1

inIto

(dioestingr

it.

Hours-,

wNent

inito

the

pilottli-no

of

graph-s,

a-nd

otlier

lioirs

inito

ins,1tructingIf

an11

assistan-t

how

to

p)lot.

Wh71en

the

grzaphis

were

finsishd,

tie

relations.~

were

oh)viouis

at

onice,

but.

the

plottinop

had-

to

he

(lone

in

ordler

to

mi-ake

thiem

so.

At

onie

l)oint.,

it,

wvas-

neicessary

to

compare

s,ix

exlperimnental

(leterminatiomlis

of

a

funcitioni

relatin-

speech-intelligibility

to

speeclh-to0-noise~

rattio.

N

o

tw

N'o

expierimnenters

lia'id

usedi

the

same

(leffinltion

or

eaur

of

speech-to-nioise

ratio.

Several

houirs

of

c-alculatingY

were

requtired

to

get,

the

dhata

inito

conmparab)le

formii.

When

they

wNere

InI

comparable

formii,

it

took

only1

a-

few

second(s

to

cletermiine

wvha

t

I

nieed(le

to

kniow.

Throughout,

the

period

I

cxaimineol,

in

zshort,

my

i'thiniking''

tlime

was

(devote(l

main-ly

to

activities

that

wvere

essenitially

clerical

or-

imcchanlical:

seuachingo

cal-

cuilatling,

plottinig,

transfornming,

(leternini-ng

thie

logical

or-

olvnaniici

conseq~uences

of

a

set

of

assuimptioils

01

liy-

lpot-heses,

preparing

the

waly

for-

a

(decision

01,

ain

ii-isiht.

Moreover,

myv

choices

of

what

to

.attempt

and

xIi

wht,

not,

t)

a

-ttempt

wvere

dleterni'ine(

to

an

eiiubarma-inohioml

reat

extent

by

considlerations

of

clrclfea-sibilitv,

not

in1-

tellectutal.

calpability.

The

mtalin

suggestioii

comiveycol

by

the

finings

lust,

described

is

that

the

operations

that

fill

mos,-t

of

thie

tlime

allegedlyv(devotedl

to

technical

thinikinig

ar-e

opera-

tioins

thiat,

ca-n

be

lperformed

miorec

effectively

by

ma-

chines

thlan

by

mieni.

'Severe

lprobilems

are

posed

by

tIme

f(act.

thalit

these

olperat

ions

have

to

be

performedl

upon

oliVerlse

variables

andii(i

unfor,eseen

amI-i

continiually

chianginig

sequtencees.

If

thlose

problems-

cani

be

solved

in

sucha

wy

asto

reae

a

symbiotic

relat-ion

betw-eena

matn

anid

a

fast,

information--retrieval

and

(ldata-process-

inig

imacchinie,

however,

it,

seems

eviden-t,

thtat

thle

coopera-

tive

initer-actioni

would

greatly

improve

tIme

thiniking-

I

)1O((55

B.

Comnparatice

Capabilitiles

of

ilIeko

and

Computers

It

miay

be

applrol)riate

to

acknowledge,

aIt.

t

his

powint.

that

wve

ar-e

using

the

termi-

'computer'

to

cover

a

wvid.e

clcass~

of

ecalculating,

dat

a-processing,

and

iiiforum

"t

ioi.m-

storge-nd-rtrivalmaclines.

The

Capabilities-

of

mia-

chiines~

in

this

class

arc

increcasing-

almost

tla-ilIv.

It

is

therefore

hazardlous

to

niake

gener.al.

statemenmts,

about

calal)lites

f

te

cass

1~rhaps

it.

is,

equally

hiazardous;

to

ma-tke

general

statements

about,

tihe

cap)abilities~

ot

mieni.

Neverthieless.

certalin

geniotypic

differenices

InI

cLap-

ability

between

mieni

awll

compliuters

do

standII

ou.t.

andt

they

have

a

b.earingr

oni

the

niat.ure

of

possibleman

comnputer

symbiosis

and

the

p

otentialI

valuec

of'

achlievino,

it.

As

has

been

sai(.l

in

various

ways.

mieii

are.

noisv,

niar-

row-b-and

(devices,

but

theirl

nier"Vous

svstenis

haveN

VeryV

Imiani

parallel

and

simultaneouslyI

active

chuannlsc.

14lela-

tive

to

macai,

computing

macWhlimes

are

very

l'ast

anid

veryv

accurate,

I

ut

th1ey

are

cons,trainedI

to

performn

oiily

one

or

a

fewN

element

arv

operatoions~

at.

a.

time.

'Menl

are1

flexi-

h

mc.

calpable

Of

"programm.1ingII-o

themse"lves

cit

ingetlv"

on

t

le

basi~s

of

newly

received

in

formation.

Compuitinog

macills

Zfesingole-minidled,

cntrained

byv

thell

progamamimig.

'

Je

naturally

s,pecak

redi

ln.lami-

guagces

orglaniztd

aroundI

unitary

obj

ects

amnd

colicremit

acions,

aim(

emlyn

0t

0

elementaryv

symbols.

Coniputers

niaturially'

spicak

nonredlundant.

Ianouages.

usuialk

lv

wit

Ii

onily

twNo

elementary

symb

ols

land

nio

inher-

(nt

appr)1eciation

eithier

of

uni,1ta-ry

obi

ects

or-

of

cohereint

act

iomns.

TIo

hw

r'iooromislv

correct.

those

chiamacterizat

ions

wvould

huave

to

iincludce

imany

qualifiers.

-Nevertheless,

tIme

piU.-

ture

of

dhissimilairity

andc

tlimerefom-e

pot-ential

sup)plemaen-

t-ation

that

they

present

is

essentially

val1id(.

Comnputimig

miachinies

can

(10

reatdily,

well,

and

r.apidly

nianv

thminos.,

thiat

are

tJifficult

om'

impossible

for

miani,

and

incan

can

do

readiil

and

well,

thiough-

niot.

rapidly,

many

tIingst'

that

ar-c

(lifficuilt

or-

imp)ossiblhe

for,

comphuters.

Tha-t

suggests-

thmait

a

symbiotic

coopierat

ion,

if

successful

ini

inteogratinog

thle

positive

charcacteristics

of

miieii

anml

compluters,

would

be

of

gr-eat.

value.

Time

dJifferences

in

spieed

andl

In

.lanl-

guage,"C

of

cours11e,

pose

difficulties,

that

muust.

be

ov-ercomle.

I

V.

S~-'EPARABLE

FuN-1,CrIioNs,

OF

MEIN

AND

COMPU-TERS

IN

THEF

A-NTICIPATED

SYMBIOTIC

Ass-OCIATmON

.It

seemls

likely

that

tlIme

contrilbutions

of

humiiani

op-

emlators

aia(l

equipmenit.

will1

blend

together

so

comuphetehy

in

nmanv

operations,

that,

it

will

be

(lifficuilt.

to

sep.arate

thieii

n'eatly

Imn

analysis.

Thlat

womild

be

tHie

case

if,

InI

gathering

(lata

oiWhuich

bo

ase

adecision,

for

exape

both

tIme

mian

and

tIme

eonihut.er

canine

upl

with

relevant

lprece(lents

fr-omi

experience

and

if

thie

comlputer

thieni

suggestedl

Ca

couirse

of

actioni

that,

agreed

withi

time

inians"

initutiv

e

udN't(gimnent.

(In

theorem-proving

programis,

cojin-

puters

find

p)recedents

in

e'xperience,

andl

in

thec

SAGE

March

Authorized licensed use limited to: Cornell University. Downloaded on September 6, 2009 at 23:16 from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply.

Licilider:

lMan-Computer

Symbiosis

System,

thev

suggest

courses

of

action.

The

foregoing

is

Inot

a

far-fetchied

examiple.)

In

otlher

operations,

however,

thie

contributions

of

miien

and

equipment

Nill

be

to

some

extent

separable.

Men

Nwill

set

the

goals

and

supply

the

motivations,

of

coturse,

at

least

in

the

early

years.

They

wrill

forml-ulate

ylN)otheses.

Thley

will

ask

quiestions.

They

wrill

think

of

mechanisms,

procedures,

and

models.

They

will

iemem-

bet

thiat

stuchl-anid-suclh

a

person

didl

soiime

possibly

rele-

vant

work

on

a

topic

of

interest

back

in

1947,

or

at

any

rate

shortly

after

World

W1'ar

II,

and

they

Nill

have

an

icdea

in

what

joturnals

it

mliglht

have

been

publislhed.

In

genieral,

they

Nill

make

approximate

and

fallible,

but

leading,

contributions,

and

they

wrill

define

criteria

and

serve

as

evaluators,

judging

the

contributions

of

the

equipment

and

guiding

the

general

line

of

tlhouglht.

In

addition,

men

will

lhandle

the

very-low-probability

situations

wlhen

such

situations

do

actually

arise.

(In

current

man-machine

systemiis,

that

is

one

of

the

human

operator's

most

iinportant

functions.

The

sum

of

the

probabilities

of

very-low-probability

alternatives

is

often

imiuclh

too

large

to

ineglect.)

Men

will

fill

in

the

gaps,

ei-

tiher

in

the

problem

solution

or

in

the

computer

program,

when

the

computer

lhas

no

mode

or

routine

that

is

ap-

plicable

in

a

particular

circumstance.

The

information-processing

equipment,

for

its

part,

will

convert

hypotlheses

into

testable

models

and

then

test

the

models

against

data

(which

the

lhutman

operator

miiay

designate

roughly

and

identify

as

relevant

when

the

computer

presents

them

for

hiis

approval).

The

equipment

will

answer

questions.

It

will

simulate

the

miechanisms

and

models,

carry

out

the

procedures,

and

display

the

results

to

the

operator.

It

w

ill

transform

data,

plot

graphs

("cutting

the

cake"

in

whatever

way

the

lhuman

operator

specifies,

or

in

several

alternative

ways

if

the

human

operator

is

not

sure

what

he

wants).

The

equipment

will

interpolate,

extrapolate,

and

trans-

forimi.

It

will

convert

static

equations

or

logical

state-

imients

into

dynamic

models

so

the

lhuman

operator

can

examine

their

behavior.

In

general,

it

will

carry

out

the

routinizable,

clerical

operations

that

fill

the

intervals

between

decisions.

In

addition,

the

comlputer

will

serve

as

a

statistical-

inference,

decision-tlheory,

or

gamue-theory

machine

to

miiake

elementary

evaluations

of

suggested

courses

of

ac-

tioIn

wlhenever

there

is

enouigh

basis

to

support

a

formal

statistical

analysis.

Finally,

it

will

do

as

muclh

diagnosis,

pattern

matching,

and

relevrance

recognizing

as

it

profit-

ablv

can,

but

it

will

accept

a

clearly

secondary

status

in

those

areas.

y!.

PREREQUISITES

FOR

REALIZATION

OF

AMAN-COMPUTER

SYAIBIOSIS

The

data-processing

equipm-nent

tacitlr

postulated

in

the

preceding

section

is

not

available.

The

colnputer

pro-

gramns

lhavre

not

been

wsritten.

Tlhere

are

in

fact

several

lhurdles

that

stand

betwteen

the

nonsymbiotic

present

and

the

anticipated

symiibiotic

future.

Let

tus

examine

somiie

of

tlheimi

to

see

more

clearly

wh-liat

is

needled

andl

wlhat

the

clhances

are

of

achieving

it.

A.

Speed

llistinatch

Between

lien

and

Com)ipiters

Any

present-day

large-scale

comlputer

is

too

fast

anid

too

costly

for

real-timiie

cooperative

tlinkiing

witlh

one

mian.

Clearly,

for

the

sake

of

efficiency

andl

economiy,

the

computer

miiust

divide

its

time

amiioing

miiany

users.

Timie-slharing

systemiis

are

cuirrently

under

active

devel-

ol)ment.

Tlhere

are

even

arrangements

to

keep

users

from

"clobbering"

anythiing

but

their

own

personal

programs.

It

seemiis

reasonable

to

enivision,

for

a

time

10

or

15

yeairs

lhencee,

'tlhinking

center"

that

will

incor)orate

the

functions

of

present-day

libraries

together

with

antici-

pated

advances

in

inforimation

storage

and

retrieval

and

the

symbiotic

functions

suggested

earlier

in

this

paper.

The

picture

readily

enlarges

itself

into

a

network

of

sucl

centers,

connected

to

one

anothier

bv

wide-band

coIml-

munication

lines

and

to

individual

users

by

leased-wire

servrices.

In

suchi

a

systemii,

the

speedi

of

the

computers

would

be

balanced,

and

the

cost

of

the

gigantic

memiories

and

the

sophisticated

programs

would

be

divided

by

the

nulmlber

of

users.

B.

Alemoary

Har}dtare

Requiremnents

Wlhen

we

start

to

think

of

storing

any

appreciable

fraction

of

a

technical

literature

in

computer

memory,

we

run

into

billions

of

bits

and,

unless

things

change

narkedly,

billions

of

dollars.

The

first

tlhing

to

face

is

that

we

shall

not

store

all

the

techlnical

and

scientific

papers

in

computer

memory.

We

nay

store

the

parts

that

can

be

summarized

most

suc-

cinctly-the

quantitative

parts

and

the

reference

cita-

tions-but

not

the

whole.

Books

are

among

the

most

beautifully

engineered,

and

human-engineered,

com-

ponents

in

existence,

and

they

will

continue

to

be

func-

tionally

important

within

the

context

of

man-computer

symbiosis.

(Hopefully,

the

computer

will

expedite

the

finding,

delivering,

and

returning

of

books.)

The

second

point

is

that

a

very

important

section

of

miiemory

will

be

periimanent:

part

indelible

mzemiiory

and

part

published

nmemiory.

The

computer

will

be

able

to

write

once

into

indelible

miemory,

and

then

read

back

indefinitely,

but

the

computer

will

not

be

able

to

erase

indelible

memory.

(It

may

also

over-write,

turning

all

the

O's

into

l's,

as

though

marking

ovrer

what

was

written

earlier.)

Published

memory

will

be

"read-only"

memory.

It

Nill

be

introdutcedl

into

the

coimiptuter

already

struc-

tured.

The

coml1puter

wN

ill

be

able

to

r-efer

to

it

repeatedly,

btut

not

to

change

it.

These

types

of

miiemory

will

be-

comiie

mioime

and

miiore

imiiportant

as

comiiputers

grow

larger.

They

can

be

made

miore

complact

than

core,

tlhin-film,

or

1960

7I

Authorized licensed use limited to: Cornell University. Downloaded on September 6, 2009 at 23:16 from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply.

8

~~~IRE

TRANSACTION'S

ON

HL

'MAN

FACTORS

IN

ELECTRONI(CS

ii((i

ev~en

tap)e

memory,

and(

thiev

wxill

bie

miuchi

less

expen-

sive.

Tue

main

eginieeringo

problems

-will

concerni

selec-

tion

eircultrv.

In

s,;o

fain

a'.

othtic

1sl)ects

of

memory

r'equirm'nent,

are

concerniedl,

XXv(

iVIav

(outiit

upo0n

the

coniiitnino'(

(levelop-

incnt.

of

or'dinau'y

'cientific

and(

hulsinlesS

computing

mai--

chines.

There

is

oine

prospewct

thal-t

miemiorv

elemients

NvI'II

l)ecome

as

fast

as

process~ino'

ilooic)

elements.

Tha-tt

lJevclopiment

wouldl

have

a

revolutiona-ry

effect.

upo

in

the

olesign

of

comnputers.

C

.

ifl[mo'y

Oya'q-abo&itw

Reqiuiremileuid.

Implicit

in

the

idlea

of

inan-cominpteci

symbiosis

are

thie

requirements

that

information

be

iet

rievable

both

by

name

and

by

pattern

antI

thiat.

it.

he

accessible

thlrough,

procedlure

imuch

faster-

thian

serial

searchl.

At

least,

hliaf

of

t-Ime

prob1lem

of

memnory

or-ganiizationi

appears

to

resi(le

in

the.s

tor-age

procedlure.

'Most

of

the

remainder

seemsl

to

be

xvi'rapped

upl

in

the

problemi

of

pattern

recognition

with

finte

storage

miechianismi

or-

miediumi.

DetailedI

dis-

cus.sion

of

thiese

problems

'Is

beyondI

the

present

s.cope(.

However,

a

l)rief

outtline

of

onec-

promising

Idea..

"trie

memory,"

may

servie

to

indicate

the

greneral.

na-iture

of

anticpted

(levelopments,.

Tiie

memory011

is

so

calledI

by

it-s

or-iginiator,

Fredkin.17

bec-ause

it

is

tlesigne(I

to

facilitate

retr-ieval

of

informa-

t.ion

and

lbecause

thie

b)ranching

storage

strutuetre,

when

developed,

resembles,-

a

tr-ee.

Most

commiion-

mlen-ior-vs'-

tentis

store

functions

of

arguments,

at

locations

designated

i)y

time

arguments.

(TIn

one

sense,

thiey

(10

not

store

tlhe

agument,s

at.

aill.

TIn

another

and

m-iore

reali~sticsne

they

stoice

all

the

possible

argruments,

in

the

framework

Structure

of

tIme

memory.)

The

tr-ie

memory

system,

oni

the

othler-

hand,

stores

both

tIme

funcitionis

anid

the

airgti-

mnents,

TIme

argument

is

introduced

into

thie

memory

first4..

one

character

at

a

tlime,

starting

at,

a

standatrd

iniitial-

reg-ist.er.

Eachi

argument

register

im

s

one

cell

for-

eachi

character

of

the

ensemblle

(e.q.,

two

for-

iniformiation

eni-

coded

in

binary

formii)

and(

aeah

charaicter

cell

hias

wNithini

it.

storage

space

for.

thie

aiddress

of

the

next.

reg'ister.

Thel

ai-rgumient

is

storedl

by

wr-1itling

a

series,

of

addresses-,

each

onie

of

which

t,ells'

wh-lere

to

find(

thie

next.

At,

th-e

endI

of

thec

ar-gumiient

is

a

special

'end(-of-arguimient"

marker.

Thien

follow,

dIirectionis

to

the

funcition,

wichiil

is

stored

in

one

or

anotheri

of

s-,everal

ways,,

either'

further

tr'ic

structure

or-

"list,

structiture"

often

l)cing,

miost.

effective.

Thie

trie

memory

scheme

is

inefficient

foi'

smIall

miemt-

ories,

but,

it.

becomes,

increasingly

efficient,

in

using

avail-

able

storage

space

as

miemiory

size

Increases.

Tile

attr-ac-

tive

feat.ures

of

the

scemiiie

are

thiese:

1)

The

retrieval

process

is

ext,remely

simple.

Given

t

le

argument.

cuite

r

thie

stanidard

initia1

register

wAithl

the

first

character.,

and

lpick

upj

thle

addIress

of

thie

second.

Thien

go

to

thle

seconid

register,

an(l

pick

up

the

add(ress

of

the

thiird,

etc.

2.)

If

1

'-

Fr'edkimn,

T

m'ie.

m

oem

no

my%,'

twNo

arguments~

have

I

n

It

Ialt

c

harancters

InI

eon11(IIno,

fley

uise

t.he

samie.

storage

spa,fce

for-

those

characters.

3)

T1he

lengthis

of

the

arguments

ncedi

ot

be

tIme

'saint1,

and

neced

niot

be.

specified

in.

advance.

4

N'o

r-oomini

IIstorage

is

rese,~rve(l

for,

or'

used.

by

any

aroounintit

tliitil

it

is

actunallv

stored.

The

triei

structure

is

crea,ted

as

theo

items

aic,

in-

t-roduced

inito

the

inemory.

5)

A

function

czan

he

used

as

an

alrgfumlent,

for-

anlother

function,

'and

tImatt

lunct

iou

aI5

an

rguent

for,

the

next.

-Thus,

for,

cxaimph

vetr

ing.

wNitli

tilie

a.-roninen

t.,

'imat

trix

immmmit

mplicint

ioi

in'

ne

immigli1t

ict

rieve

the

enltire

p-rogmraill

foi

pertoimo1110

"iii

a

nl-

t

iilx

inult

ipdiclation

Onl

thle

computer.

(6)

Byx

cxaiim

ing'11

Hthe

storaaeo

at

agvnlevel,

one

(ain

dleteirmine

w

hat

flim~-

fai'

siniiiai'

items1.-

liave

beeni

stored.

Fom-

uxamplh

if

there

isnoctat'ion

for-

Eg-an.

.J.

P.,

it

is.

hut

a

step

or-

twom

:ik-

Ward,(

to

pick

til

the

trail

of

Egan,

James.

TheI

properties

*i

tist

described

(10

not

Include

all,

Ih

dcs,ii'ed

IoticeS,

but

t

1ev

1briig

comlpliter

stor,age

nit

I)

res-

omaiewtlIi

Inunan-Il

opcrat

ois

aiid

1

h1cii

p

ired

ilect

i

t

deigntet

uns

i

nanung

or

poiiit

ing.

I.).

Thle

Lau

qpiae

Problemi

Th'le

basic

(lissimiiliarity

between

humanzi

lanuptages,

aiiul

coinmutetr

languages

maty

be

tile

most

5scrious

ob)stacle

to

titme

svyimihioss.

It

is

retassur~ing,,

however,

to

niote

-what

goreat

st

ride~s

have

al

ready

been

imade,

thI

roughm

iiterpre-

tive

prog-ramls

aind

p.am'ticuh'larl

through

assemnbly

oi'

coml-

piling

lirogram.,s

5ic(i

as,

FRTWrAN,

to

adaICpt

computer-s

to

limimiaii

1,-language

form

ms.

The

-In

formua,ttion

Processinig

LangumaQ'e

of

Sl1iaw,

Newvell,

Sirmon,

(and

Ellistm

repies,ents

atiiotlmer-

line

of

ma

ppiroclhemment

Amid,

in

ALG()L

am

nI

i'c-

latedI

systems,

men

(

ame

provingu

their

flexibility

by

adopit-

ing

standard

formnulas~

of

r(1presenit'ation

aim

I

txpr'ess,iomn

lthat

ai'e

r'ea(lily

tr.anslattable

iiito

machine

langu-tage.

For

thie

pumrposes

of

meald-time

coopemration

l.etweetn

men

and(

compulters.~

it.

wXill

be

necesiary.

lhowevei',

to

iiiake

tmse

of

ami

additional1

and

matlier

ditfemrmit

principle

of

comimmunication

and(

control.

The

idea

iniv

ibe

highvi-

ligh-tedI

by

comparing'

Inistriuctiomis

omrdinarily

adl-dressed

to

initelligrenit

hm1anl

lbeiiig's

Xvith

imistiructions

om'(iniai'i

lv

tisedI

wXitli

coniptuter's.

The

lattfer

specify

preccisely

tIme

in-

dividuaxl

steps

to

take

and(

the

~sejuenled

inl

X

1imici

tdi

t`ake

thiem.

The

foriim'r

pr'esent

oi-

imuply

somiet.ltiniig

albout

iii-

(cenitive

or-

motivat.ion,

and(

tIhey

supplv

a

cr-iter-ioii

by

wh'liclh

tIme

hitmman

exectutor

ot

the

inistrtuctions

XX'ill

know

XX'hmenilit'

liaxs

axccoinplished

liis

task.

In

short

instri'ie-

tions

directed

to

comiputmttr

spemix'v

courses

istoIt'-

tionis

(lirected

to

hitnianl-i

beings

(,c

f

oals.

i\[cn

appeam'

t.o

thumiik

momrei

ritumi

ally,

antiesiyi

termums

of

gToals

th-an

mintiu

of

coturses.

Tirue,

tliey

usu-

ally

know

sometihing,

aliout.

directiomns

in

wh'lilh

to

travel

or

lines

along

wh'iieh

to

XX'ork,

bumt

fewv

star't,

ouit.

wXit.Ii

lire-

cisely

formutlated

itinera-ries.

Whrlo,

fom'

example.

wXould_l

j1;

J.

C.

Sillaxx'

A..

Newell.

H.

A.

Simci,om

lnmid

T.

0.

E'lUis.

'A

c'omimand

stri'etumre

fom'

complex

mInformiatmion

i!'csml.

prol'

11700C.

pp.

119-128;

May,

1958.

8

March

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